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By Andrew Stanton
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Republicans’ disapproval of President Donald Trump’s handling of the economy reached a new high of 37 percent in a new AP/NORC poll released Wednesday, a major red flag for the GOP ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
A record share of Republicans expressing dissatisfaction with the economy under Trump could signal a meaningful shift inside his own coalition. Trump made strengthening the economy and combating inflation a cornerstone of his 2024 campaign, but Americans continue to face a difficult economy and high cost of living more than a year into his term. Gas prices in particular have become a strain for millions of Americans amid the Iran war, with the national average reaching $4.555 per gallon on Wednesday, according to AAA.
White House spokesperson Kush Desai told Newsweek the American economy has been “resilient” under Trump.
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“Americans can rest assured that as this agenda continues taking effect, and as Congress passes more of the President’s healthcare and housing affordability agenda, the best is yet to come in the second Trump term,” Desai said.
The poll found that 30 percent of Republicans disapprove of Trump’s handling of Iran nearly three months into the conflict that has upended the global economy. It surveyed 1,117 adults from May 14 to May 18, 2026, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
Overall, only 33 percent of Americans said they approve of Trump on the economy, while 67 percent give him negative marks.
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Trump’s Overall Approval Ticks Up
Despite growing dissatisfaction with Trump’s handling of the economy among Republican respondents, the poll did show his overall approval rating improved from April, though it remained low. Thirty-seven percent of respondents said they approve of Trump’s job performance, compared to 33 percent in a survey conducted from April 16 to April 20, 2026.
That’s still a decrease from May 2025, when AP polling showed that 41 percent of Americans approved of the president.
Trump Holds Iron Grip on GOP in Primaries
Trump remains a powerful, influential figure within the Republican Party, even as polling suggests his national approval rating has waned since he returned to office last year.
Recent GOP primary results show that his iron grip on the party’s electorate remains strong heading into the midterms.
Trump-endorsed Ed Gallrein unseated Representative Thomas Massie in a contentious Kentucky House GOP primary on Tuesday that garnered significant spending and national attention. Massie drew Trump’s ire over his critiques of the administration’s handling of the Epstein files and the Iran war.
Last weekend, GOP Senator Bill Cassidy, who voted to convict Trump after he was impeached following the January 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol, lost in the Louisiana Senate primary, with Trump-endorsed Representative Julia Letlow and State Treasurer John Fleming advancing to a runoff over the incumbent.
What Do Other Polls Show About Trump Approval Rating?
Other recent polling shows that Trump’s approval rating has fallen in recent weeks, both nationally and in key swing states.
Reuters/Ipsos (May 15-18, 1,271 adults)
- Approve: 35 percent
- Disapprove: 63 percent
Echelon Insights (May 14-18, 1008 likely voters)
- Approve: 40 percent
- Disapprove: 59 percent
YouGov/The Economist (May 15-18, 1,549 adults)
- Approve: 37 percent
- Disapprove: 57 percent
New York Times/Siena College (May 11-14, 1,507 adults)
- Approve: 37 percent
- Disapprove: 59 percent
Trump Approval Looms Over Midterms
Trump's popularity is set to be a major factor in the midterms, which are typically viewed as a referendum on the incumbent president. Historically, the party in the White House loses seats in the midterms. During Trump's first White House term, Democrats swept back into power in the House by flipping 41 seats in 2018.
In 2022, during former President Joe Biden's tenure, Republicans flipped nine House seats, winning the popular vote by about three points. In 2018, under Trump, Democrats won the popular vote by nearly 9 points while flipping those 41 House seats. In 2010, former President Barack Obama's first midterm, Republicans won the popular vote by nearly 7 points and flipped a whopping 62 seats.
A poor approval rating for Trump could raise the chances of similar results this November.
On Wednesday, Kalshi gave Democrats a 74 percent of retaking the House and Republicans a 54 percent chance of holding onto the Senate. Polymarket, meanwhile, placed Democrats' chances of securing a House majority at 81 percent, but still favored Republicans to hold the Senate with 52 percent.
Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates. Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.
Gas Prices Emerge as GOP Midterm Challenge
Americans are facing higher gas prices due to the closures and disruptions of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passageway for the global oil supply, amid the Iran war.
Roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day, about one‑fifth of global petroleum consumption, normally pass through the strait, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data. Its closure amid the war has put additional pressure on global oil markets, leading to higher prices globally and in the United States.
Gas prices rose from $4.533 per gallon on Tuesday to $4.555 per gallon, AAA data shows. For comparison, the average gas price nationwide was $4.511 per gallon a week earlier and $4.042 per gallon a month earlier. One year ago, it was $3.177 per gallon. California saw the highest prices at $6.145 per gallon on Wednesday.
Gas prices have become central to Democrats' messaging.
"Gas prices are rising toward $5 a gallon because of the reckless Republican war of choice in Iran," House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries wrote in a May 5 post to X. "Enough."
Experts widely agree that gas prices will begin to decline when Washington and Tehran can reach an agreement and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is resumed. But even then, it could take longer for any agreement to provide relief at the pump.
Trump has been sending mixed messages about the future of the conflict. On Tuesday, he said the war with Iran could end “very quickly” as the Iranians want “to make a deal so badly,” he claimed.
“It’s gonna happen, and it’s gonna happen fast. You’re going to see oil prices plummet, they’re gonna come down,” he added.
Congress has sought to alleviate pain at the pump.
House Republicans passed a bill last week that would allow nationwide year-round sales of E15, a blend of gasoline mixed with 15 percent ethanol, also known as Unleaded 88—a product that refiners and retailers normally cannot sell in around half the country during the summer months due to air pollution concerns.
E15 is generally cheaper than E10. According to a 2024 estimate by the EPA, the E15 blend was then about $0.25 a gallon cheaper than E10. The Renewable Fuels Association estimates the price for E15 to be often 5-10 percent lower than the one for E10.
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