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By Micah McCartney
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The Heritage Foundation says it redacted portions of its report on a simulated war with China over Taiwan at the request of the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump.
The Washington, D.C., think tank argued that the redactions were necessary to avoid providing Beijing with strategic insights that could counter the Pentagon's war plans.
Newsweek has contacted the Heritage Foundation and the Pentagon for comment outside office hours.
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Why It Matters
Chinese President Xi Jinping seeks to build a "world‑class" military by 2049. The People's Liberation Army has already made major advances, fielding the world's largest navy, expanding both its conventional and nuclear missile forces, and pouring resources into dual‑use technologies such as artificial intelligence.
The Pentagon considers China a "pacing threat," and much of the momentum behind U.S. military planning is shifting to counter that challenge. If a conflict were to occur, a likely theater would be Taiwan—the self‑ruled island Beijing claims as its territory and has vowed to unify with, by force if necessary.
What To Know
Guided by human analysts, the Heritage Foundation's new platform, known as Tidalwave, leveraged artificial intelligence to process a large pool of open‑source material—drawing on more than 7,000 publicly available government, commercial, academic, operational and industry sources.
"The purpose of Tidalwave is to identify gaps and deficiencies and corresponding solutions to resolve anticipated shortfalls in our ability to project and sustain forces and to exploit adversary vulnerabilities in order to degrade their ability to conduct military operations," the report said.
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The war game exposed a wide range of vulnerabilities for both belligerents—such as China's heavy and growing dependence on imported oil and the U.S.'s overstretched fleet of oilers and insufficient stocks of precision‑guided munitions.
Yet large swaths of the analysis remain redacted.
"In exercising this discretion, the authors sought to preserve the report's ability to guide and inform actions that strengthen U.S. resilience and leverage adversary vulnerabilities, while limiting the public release of details that would function as operationally actionable guidance for a capable adversary," the think tank wrote in a note prefacing the almost 400‑page report.
The authors identified a consistent pattern across scenarios: The speed at which the United States can surge its forces, particularly ships and aircraft, during the first 30 to 60 days will determine the overall trajectory of the war.
In a stark warning to Washington, the report said, "The U.S. will almost certainly not achieve its strategic aim of preventing the enormous adverse economic impact of a conflict with the PRC in all scenarios."
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The report warns that the immediate economic shock from a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, a critical node in global technology supply chains and the producer of almost all advanced chips, would wipe out an estimated $10 trillion—or almost 10 percent—of global gross domestic product, echoing a congressional commission's warning in November.
The simulation did not factor in the U.S.'s or China's nuclear capabilities or the potential role of U.S. allies in the region.
The full, unredacted study was provided to authorized U.S. government personnel for internal use.
What People Are Saying
The authors of the report wrote: "The platform we have created allows policymakers, practitioners, and the public to engage directly with the data and make better‑informed decisions to safeguard American interests."
Chinese President Xi Jinping said during his annual New Year's Eve address: "We Chinese on both sides of the Taiwan Strait share a bond of blood and kinship. The reunification of our motherland, a trend of the times, is unstoppable."
What Happens Next
U.S. defense officials believe Xi has directed the People's Liberation Army to be capable of moving against Taiwan by the end of 2027 but added that this does not necessarily mean he intends to act on that timeline.
While Washington is Taiwan's primary arms supplier, it has for decades maintained a policy of "strategic ambiguity" over whether it would commit forces to the island's direct defense.
Trump has said Xi personally assured him that China would not attack Taiwan during Trump's second term. Beijing has not confirmed this claim.
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