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By Anna Skinner
Associate News Editor
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As many as nine states could see accumulating snowfall this weekend as the first winter storm of the season hits the U.S.
The storm comes amid an unusually warm start to November, with above-average temperatures affecting much of the country as a strengthening El Niño influences the broader weather pattern. While forecasts increasingly point to snow this weekend, several days remain before the system arrives, meaning its exact track, timing and snowfall totals remain uncertain.
“This storm will likely bring the first snowflakes of the season to many interior locations, though the exact track and intensity of the storm will dictate where,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty said in a forecast. “Areas from the interior of the Northeast to the central Appalachians look like the most likely areas to see snow, though outside of higher elevations, snow should struggle to accumulate.”
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Winter Weather Projections for the US
The winter storm comes as the U.S. is heading toward a polarized winter this year because of El Niño, with half of the country likely to have a warm, dry winter, according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts, while the other half is expecting stormier conditions.
In October, NOAA issued its annual winter weather outlook, with meteorologists predicting the northern half of the U.S. would see above-average temperatures, with the Southwest and Southeast expecting near-normal conditions.
As far as precipitation goes, the southern U.S. and up into parts of the Northeast have chances of above-average precipitation, while the Northwest is expected to be dry.
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Where Could Winter Weather Hit This Weekend?
A storm currently bringing rain and mountain snow across the Northwest will trek east across the U.S. throughout the week and merge with another storm descending from Canada before hitting the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic this weekend. ‘
Winter weather could begin in the Eastern U.S. as early as Thursday morning and persist through Saturday morning. Rain is expected in lower elevations, and any snow that falls there likely won’t accumulate because temperatures will be too warm.
"Even in a perfect setup for November snow, which this is not, it is very difficult for snow to fall, let alone accumulate at low elevations along the Interstate 95 corridor," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said. "Atlantic water temperatures are in the 40s, 50s and 60s offshore of the Northeast, so any kind of breeze off the water will cause the air to be too warm.”
Accumulating snow is possible for high-elevation areas of North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, and Maine.
"In the Northeast U.S. a storm may bring gusty winds, low elevation rain, and high elevation snow Friday into this coming weekend," the National Weather Service (NWS) said in a forecast.
Animated weather footage by windy.com shows the forecast track of the snow.
However, as of Tuesday morning, much of the forecast remains clear, although parts of Northern New York and Vermont had some rainfall.
Which States Could See the Most Snow This Winter?
Historically, stronger El Niño events often favor a stormier southern tier of the United States while bringing above-average temperatures to parts of the northern U.S.
The states that could see more snow this winter are ones that didn't see much snow last winter, according to a report by AccuWeather published earlier this month. While the North, Midwest, and Northeast are expecting below-average snowfall this winter, the Intermountain West, Southwest, and Central U.S. could see above-average totals.
Meanwhile, northern states like Minnesota and North Dakota might face lower-than-average odds of a white Christmas, as well as eastern states like Maine, Vermont, and New Hampshire, because winter weather behavior is influenced by El Niño.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.
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