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By Andrew Stanton
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Michigan's U.S. Senate race is expected to be among the most competitive of the 2026 midterms, and the outcome of the August 4 Democratic primary between Representative Haley Stevens and progressive candidate Abdul El-Sayed could prove critical in shaping the contours of the election.
Republican Mike Rogers, a former U.S. representative, is the presumptive GOP nominee, but Democrats are set to select either El-Sayed or Stevens to lead them into November in what has become an increasingly contentious primary.
El-Sayed is a favorite among progressives, earning endorsements from lawmakers such as New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. Stevens is viewed as the more moderate pick and has the support of Governor Gretchen Whitmer.
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Regardless of who wins the primary, the race is expected to be competitive in November.
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Michigan is a critical battleground state that backed President Donald Trump by fewer than 2 percentage points in the 2024 election, so Republicans believe its status as a Trump state gives them a chance at flipping it after Democratic Senator Gary Peters chose not to seek reelection. Democrats are hopeful a favorable national environment driven by Trump’s declining national approval rating will help keep the seat in their hands.
Forecasters like the Cook Political Report view the race as a toss-up.
Arik Wolk, a spokesperson for Haley’s campaign, told Newsweek that “momentum is at Haley’s back in the final days of the election, as she fights to lower costs, protect Michigan manufacturing, and take on Trump’s corruption and abuses of power.”
“Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Senator Gary Peters, former Senator Debbie Stabenow, and so many others are lining up behind Haley because they know she will deliver for Michigan on day one, and she’s the strongest and only Democrat who can beat Mike Rogers. And Rogers knows Haley can beat him too–which is why he said he’d be ‘in great shape’ if Abdul wins the primary,” Wolk said.
Newsweek also reached out to El-Sayed's campaigns for comment via email.
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Abdul El-Sayed vs. Haley Stevens: What Final Polls Show
The latest polls of the race gave El-Sayed a lead over Stevens.
A survey from Michigan pollster Mitchell Research & Communications, which surveyed 406 likely voters July 28-29, showed El-Sayed up 14 points, 52 percent to 38 percent. His support was boosted by a significant lead with young voters, winning 68 percent of those aged 18-29 and 62 percent of those 30-44. Stevens, however, did best with those 65+, winning 50 percent among that age group.
A Zenith Research poll, first reported by Michigan journalist Sam Robinson, found that El-Sayed led Stevens on an initial ballot, 53 percent to 34 percent. When undecided voters were pushed about who they would support, El-Sayed had an 18-point lead, 59 percent to 41 percent.
It surveyed 536 likely Democratic primary voters from July 26-30, 2026.
An Emerson College poll produced similar results—it showed El-Sayed with a 16-point lead, 57 percent to 41 percent. It surveyed 700 likely voters July 26-27, 2026. A Tavern Research poll showed El-Sayed up 11 points, 48 percent to 37 percent. It surveyed 914 likely voters July 26-27.
An earlier poll from Glengariff Group and The Detroit News gave Stevens a 7-point lead, 48 percent to 41 percent. It surveyed 500 likely voters July 8-11.
CNN data analyst Harry Enten said on Monday that El-Sayed is poised to “deliver the biggest blow so far against the establishment of the Democratic Party.”
“He is the heavy favorite going into tomorrow,” he said.
The race, he said, is “key for understanding where the Democratic Party is right now.”
What Do Prediction Markets Show?
Prediction markets favor El-Sayed to win the nomination. As of Tuesday morning, he had a 98 percent chance of winning the nomination on both Kalshi and Polymarket.
Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates.
Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.
Poll Shows Tight Race in November, Underscores Electability Debate
A new poll from EPIC-MRA, sponsored by Michigan Information & Research Service, pointed to a tight race in November regardless of who wins the nomination, but showed Stevens in a stronger position than El-Sayed against Rogers.
The poll showed Stevens leading Rogers by 2 points, 44 percent to 42 percent, while Rogers led El-Sayed by 3 points, 46 percent to 43 percent. It surveyed 600 likely voters from July 24-31, 2026.
It underscores a central concern some Democrats have about El-Sayed around electability. Stevens raised that issue in an August 2 post to X, writing, “MAGA Republicans are boosting my opponent because they know they can beat him in the general election. Today's poll showing Abdul losing to Mike Rogers confirms it. I'm the only candidate who can keep Michigan blue and help us flip the US Senate.”
El-Sayed, however, has pushed back on those concerns. He told CBS News it is “funny” that people believe Michigan votes for moderates when it backed Trump twice.
"It may just be that the better explanation is not that the state wants moderates: It's that it's so sick and tired of the establishment bought off by corporations on both sides of the political aisle that it was willing to hold its nose and vote for Donald Trump twice,” he told the news station.
El-Sayed, Stevens Make Final Primary Pitch
The two candidates made their final pitches to voters on Tuesday in hopes of winning over enough support in the critical primary.
“I believe in the kind of America where no matter where you grow up, the color of your skin, how you pray, you deserve equal rights in this country. You deserve to go to a good school, get healthcare when you need it, and know that you can graduate and get a good job,” El-Sayed wrote in a post to X.
Stevens, in a video posted to X, said her campaign is about “protecting and defending the state we love.
“It is about standing up for our workers, supporting our communities, protecting democracy and making sure government works for the people,” she said.
Contentious Primary
The primary between El-Sayed and Stevens had grown increasingly contentious heading toward primary day.
U.S. support for Israel has been a major sticking point in the primary and could continue to be a factor in November, as Michigan is home to notable Arab American and Jewish populations. Many Democrats believe former Vice President Kamala Harris lost votes in the state because of her support for Israel.
El-Sayed has cast himself as a critic of the Israeli government, while Stevens has established herself as supportive of Israel and has support from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC).
Stevens has also sought to cast herself as the more electable candidate in Michigan, a key swing state, over somebody who is more progressive.
The two have traded barbs in recent days.
El-Sayed described Stevens as “the least capable candidate in America.”
Haley, in response, criticized him in a post to X: “Abdul, we were both on the ballot in 2018. I was capable of winning my competitive primary and general election. You lost. You lost by over twenty points to Gretchen Whitmer and you will lose to Mike Rogers by talking like this. Everyone in America understands you want to blame all of your problems on Jewish Americans,” she wrote.
She added that El-Sayed would “just be a celebrity whining and writing books to get even richer” and is “part of the complainer class.”
Some Michigan Democrats have declined to say they would support El-Sayed as the nominee. Representative Hillary Scholten, who represents a district based around Grand Rapids, told Semafor that she would “not stand beside someone who has allowed distinctly anti-American sentiment to enter our public dialogue.”
That leaves Tuesday's winner with a pivotal task of uniting the party divided by such a contentious primary.
What Time Do Polls Close in Michigan?
Polls in Michigan opened Tuesday at 7 a.m. local time and close at 8 p.m. local time, according to the Michigan Secretary of State's office.
What Else is Michigan Voting On?
In addition to the Senate race, several other statewide officers are up this year. Primaries are set to be held in the governor, attorney general and secretary of state races. Congressional races are also up for grabs. The governor race is also viewed as competitive. On the Democratic side, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson has established a polling lead over Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson. In the Republican primary, Representative John James is leading polls against businessman Perry Johnson.
Three U.S. House races are viewed as competitive ahead of November. Those are MI-04, held by GOP Representative Bill Huizenga; MI-07, held by GOP Representative Tom Barrett; and MI-10, an open seat being vacated by GOP Representative John James. There are also state legislative primaries on Tuesday.
Michigan Is Democrats' Must-Win State
Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority, so Democrats must flip four seats to win control. A Republican victory in Michigan would complicate Democrats’ path.
Democrats are defending a seat in another Trump-won state, Georgia, where Senator Jon Ossoff is running for reelection. Democrats also view GOP-held states in Maine, which Trump lost by 7 points in 2024, and North Carolina, which he won by 3 points, as top flip opportunities.
But there are no other Senate races in Harris-won or single-digit Trump states, meaning Democrats have to expand the Senate battleground and compete in more conservative areas if they want to win the majority. They are targeting GOP-held seats in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas as potential states to flip.
The Cook Political Report classifies races in Alaska, Maine, Michigan and Ohio as tossups.
Prediction markets favor Republicans to keep control of the Senate. The GOP had a 53 percent chance on both Kalshi and a 56 percent chance on Polymarket of holding on to its majority as of Monday.
Michigan Could Become Next Progressive Test
An El-Sayed victory would set up Michigan to become a major test for the political left in the midterms. Progressive representation in the House and Senate is primarily confined to safe Democratic seats, but a surge in progressive support in primaries this cycle gives them an opportunity to expand their reach into more competitive territory.
The Wisconsin governor's race, where state legislator Francesca Hong has carved out a polling lead, could be another key test for the left, as it’s another state that narrowly backed Trump in 2024.
So far in the primaries, progressive candidates Brad Lander, Claire Valdez and Darializa Avila Chevalier won House primaries in New York. In Colorado, progressive Melat Kiros unseated Representative Diana DeGette in the Democratic primary for a Denver-based House seat, while state legislator Julie Gonzales came close to defeating Senator John Hickenlooper in the primary.
How Michigan Became Swing State
Michigan has become an electoral battleground over the past decade. Former President Barack Obama easily won the state twice—by more than 16 points in 2008 and by just under 10 points in 2012. But Trump flipped it in 2016, carrying it by less than half a percentage point.
Trump made gains across the state because of his strong showing among white voters in rural areas who backed Obama. He lost ground in the suburbs around Detroit and Grand Rapids, but rural gains made up for it. Democrats struggled to win back those voters in significant numbers in recent cycles but continued to make gains in the suburbs.
Michigan flipped back to Democrats in 2020, when former President Joe Biden carried it by just under 2 points. But Trump won it again in 2024 by about 1.4 points—the strongest showing for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988.
At the same time, Democratic Senator Elissa Slotkin won an open seat by less than half a percentage point in 2024.
Michigan was particularly tricky for Democrats in 2024. Harris lost significant ground among Michigan’s large Arab American community, many of whom declined to support her because of the Biden administration’s strong support for Israel amid the conflict in Gaza.
Winning back those voters will be critical for whichever Democrat emerges from the Senate primary, as Democrats cannot afford to lose Michigan in November.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon, Dave Siminoff, Sam Wilson.
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