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By Khaleda Rahman
National Correspondent
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Democrats' chances of holding on to the Wisconsin governor's office have surged on prediction markets after moderate Democrat David Crowley won his party's gubernatorial primary over progressive state Representative Francesca Hong.
Crowley, who is seeking to become Wisconsin's first Black governor, narrowly defeated Hong after pitching himself as the candidate best positioned to defeat U.S. Representative Tom Tiffany, who received President Donald Trump's endorsement and won the Republican primary, in November.
Crowley, who had quit the race in early July, revived his campaign with the endorsement of outgoing Democratic Governor Tony Evers less than two weeks later. Newsweek has contacted the Crowley and Tiffany campaigns for comment via email.
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In an interview with CNN's Kaitlan Collins on Wednesday night, Crowley said in part that "MAGA extremism is not the way that we want to go, it's not where our state wants to go and it's not the way that our country should be going. And at the end of the day, we need to make sure that we can defeat Donald Trump's legacy and make sure that Tom Tiffany doesn't become our governor."
In a separate interview with MS NOW's Jen Psaki, Crowley was asked how he plans to gain Hong's supporters following her loss. "We may not agree on everything, but I think that we can all agree on the fact that we need to defeat any MAGA extremist that's going to be trying to occupy our governor's office," Crowley said in part in a rush transcript sent to Newsweek.
"And so we know that it's not just about talking about ideology, it's talking directly to the values that people have and how they want to keep working families at the center of every discussion. And so no matter where you are on this political spectrum, especially within the Democratic Party, we need you," Crowley later said while acknowledging that "there's always going to be some level of disagreement."
On prediction markets, Republican odds of flipping the governorship in November had surged above Democrats' in the days leading up to Tuesday's primary, as Hong appeared set to become the nominee. Public polls had shown her with a commanding lead over Crowley and other candidates.
However, the Associated Press called the race for Crowley early Wednesday morning after Hong conceded, and prediction markets once again favor Democrats to win the gubernatorial election in November.
As of 8 a.m. Eastern time, Kashi has given Democrats a 78 percent chance of holding on to the governor's office this fall, up from 39.4 percent on Sunday. Republicans' odds have fallen to 22 percent on the prediction market, from 61.8 percent on Sunday.
Democrats' odds of winning in November have also climbed on rival prediction market Polymarket. As of 5:30 a.m., it gives Democrats a 77 percent chance of winning in November, up from 41 percent a day ago. Republican odds have fallen to 22 percent, down from 51 percent on Monday.
Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates. Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.
The Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball both rank the Wisconsin gubernatorial race as a toss-up.
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Costas Panagopoulos, a professor of political science at Northeastern University, told Newsweek on Wednesday that Crowley's win "likely boosts Democrats' chances to win the governor's race against the GOP's Tiffany in Wisconsin."
"His nomination erases electability concerns about how Hong's more ideologically extreme agenda would play in the general election," he continued.
Still, Panagopoulos added: "Democrats might be temporarily breathing a sigh of relief; however, they will still likely have a dogfight on their hands heading into November."
Both Candidates Must Win Over Independents
To emerge victorious in November, Crowley and Tiffany will have to win over the moderate and independent voters who are critical in the swing state known for razor-thin election margins.
Crowley "is focused on bringing people together, earning the support of Democrats, Republicans, Independents, and anyone who believes Wisconsin is at its best when we work together and deliver results," Garren Randolph, his campaign manager, said in a statement after the race was called.
Tiffany appealed to those voters in his victory speech on Tuesday night.
"Whatever your political label—Republican, independent, politically homeless, or Democrat, there's a place for you in the commonsense movement," he said.
"If you want your children and grandchildren to grow up in a land of opportunity, join us," he added.
Mainstream Democrats Rallied Behind Crowley
Crowley's victory comes after he secured the backing of more mainstream Democrats, who fear candidates from the party's left flank will struggle to beat Republicans in November.
Some establishment Democrats worried that Hong and her platform would be a tougher sell among moderate and independent voters.
Jim Kessler, the executive vice president for policy at the centrist group Third Way, said the skepticism reflected a structural reality of governor's races rather than bias against Hong specifically.
"Voters are a lot more forgiving in legislative races than in governor's races when it comes to ideology," Kessler told Newsweek. In a governor's race, he said, "the officeholder is one of one," and voters weigh what a candidate means "for their taxes, their business, their schools and their safety."
While Hong had energized left-wing voters, prominent national progressives—including Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Senator Bernie Sanders—did not endorse her despite supporting other prominent progressive candidates, such as Michigan Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed.
"My focus has been in winning back the Congress, winning back the House, and positioning ourselves to have the best chance possible to win the Senate," Ocasio-Cortez said on ABC's This Week on Sunday when asked why she hadn't endorsed Hong.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Ben Kelly, Shakeema Edwards and Anna Commander.
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