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By Andrew Stanton
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Former Democratic Representative Abigail Spanberger held a 10-point lead over Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears in the latest poll of Virginia's gubernatorial race.
Newsweek has reached out to the Spanberger and Earle-Sears campaigns for comment via email.
Why It Matters
Virginia and New Jersey are the only states holding gubernatorial races this year, so they'll be the first two major elections held after President Donald Trump's election in 2024. Virginia's gubernatorial elections tend to sway based on the party in the White House, with Democrats typically winning when a Republican is in office.
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Despite Virginia shifting left over the past decades, Republican Glenn Youngkin won the last governor race in 2021. However, he's term limited at the end of the year, so the race will be open.
For Republicans, the election will be a gage into whether they are able to hold onto some of the voters they won back in 2024. Meanwhile, it will be a key test for Democrats' messaging as they seek to stage a comeback over the next few years.
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What to Know
A Virginia Commonwealth University poll released on Friday showed Spanberger winning support from 44 percent of respondents compared to Earle-Sears who earned the backing of 34 percent of respondents.
It polled 806 voters from December 18, 2024, to January 15, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.73 points.
Other polls have similarly found Spanberger, the only Democrat presently in the race, leading Earle-Sears, viewed as the favorite to secure the Republican nomination.
A Christopher Newport University poll, conducted among 806 registered voters from January 6 to 13, showed Spanberger with a 5-point lead over Earle-Sears (44 to 39 percent).
Meanwhile, an Emerson College poll, conducted among 1,000 from January 6 to 8, showed Spanberger with only a single-point lead (42 to 41 percent).
How Virginia Voted in 2024, Past Elections
Virginia narrowly backed Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 election, giving her just under 52 percent of the vote compared to Trump's 46 percent. Four years earlier, it backed former President Joe Biden by a 10-point margin, giving him 54 percent of the vote and Trump 44 percent.
In 2021, Virginia elected Youngkin by a roughly 2-point margin over former Governor Terry McAuliffe, a Democrat, a comeback for Republicans.
Although it elected Democratic governors in 2000 and 2004, Virginia typically voted for Republican presidential candidates through the early 2000s, until it backed former President Barack Obama in 2008. Since then, suburban shifts in Washington, D.C., and Richmond suburbs have carried the state further leftward.
Who Are Virginia's Gubernatorial Candidates?
Spanberger was first elected to the House of Representatives in 2018, unseating a Republican in a traditionally conservative district. She established herself as a centrist lawmaker in Congress, at times sparring with more progressive members of her party and previously being a member of the centrist Blue Dog Coalition.
Earle-Sears was elected lieutenant governor in 2021, alongside Youngkin. A U.S. Marine Corps veteran, she previously served in the House of Delegates from 2002 to 2004. She later served on the Virginia Board of Education.
Currently, no other Democrats are in the primary, though Representative Bobby Scott has not ruled out a run, The Virginia Pilot reported in January. Former gubernatorial candidate Merle Rutledge is also running in the GOP primary, but Earle-Sears is viewed as the favorite.
What People Are Saying
Former Democratic Virginia Governor L. Douglas Wilder, a distinguished professor at Virginia Commonwealth University, in a press release: "The 10% lead of Spanberger to Earle-Sears (44% to 34%) should cause Earle-Sears to be concerned especially given 25% of Republicans do not show support for her candidacy. Spanberger's lead, however, could be significantly impacted should Republicans close ranks around Earle-Sears' candidacy."
What Happens Next?
Virginia's primaries are scheduled for June 17.
The Cook Political Report classifies the Virginia gubernatorial race as a pure toss-up.
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