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By Kate Plummer
Senior US News Reporter
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The Republican Party is projected to attract a smaller proportion of votes than the Democrats in the upcoming midterm elections, according to a pollster that has been deemed accurate.
According to polling by AtlasIntel, 54.4 percent of people would vote for a Democratic candidate if the midterm elections were held on the day they were polled, while 38.4 percent would opt for the GOP ticket. This puts the GOP 16 percentage points behind the Democrats, some 11 months before the elections are set to take place.
Newsweek reached out to the White House by email outside of normal business hours for comment.
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Why It Matters
Polling regarding the GOP is important ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. The party has a slim majority of 219 to 214 in the House of Representatives and holds a 53-47 majority in the Senate. Losing just a few seats could make it difficult for it to carry out its agenda during the rest of President Donald Trump's term.
AtlasIntel was ranked the most accurate polling company of the 2024 election by survey veteran Nate Silver and was previously named the most accurate pollster of the 2020 election by 538. This survey may particularly concern the GOP given the pollster is seen as so accurate.
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What To Know
The AtlasIntel polling of 2,315 respondents was conducted between December 15 and 19. It had a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points.
Aside from the 54.4 percent who said they would support the Democrats and the 38.4 percent who chose the Republicans, it found that 6 percent didn't know and 1.2 percent said they would not vote.
Ninety-eight percent of self-identified Democrats said they would vote for their party's candidate, but 11.7 percent of Republicans also said they would support a Democratic candidate. Some 7.7 percent of Trump voters in the 2024 election also indicated they would switch their allegiance to the Democratic Party.
The pollsters also found that Trump's approval rating is in decline. In December, 59.6 percent disapproved of the president while 39.3 percent approved of him. This gives him a net approval rating of -20 percentage points. In November, the number was -15 points, per the pollster.
In October, Trump's net approval rating was -4 percentage points with 44.3 percent approving of him and 48.3 disapproving of him.
What People Are Saying
Former White House adviser Karl Rove wrote in a Wall Street Journal op-ed this week**:** "It’s the season of jingle bells and sleigh bells for most of us, but for the White House, alarm bells should be clanging. The administration is making mistakes that could result in a nasty 2026 midterm defeat for President Trump’s party."
In response, White House spokesman Kush Desai pointed to Thursday's better-than-expected inflation reading as "proof that President Trump’s robust policy agenda continues to pay off."
"In the new year, the Trump administration will continue to focus on ending Joe Biden’s affordability crisis and restoring the working-class prosperity that Americans enjoyed during President Trump’s first term," Desai told Newsweek.
What Happens Next
Whether the GOP's polling fortune changes before the November 2026 midterms remains to be seen.
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