GOP Poised to Win Midterms But Trump Could Stand in the Way: Frank Luntz

Pollster Frank Luntz said Sunday that he believes Republicans "should win" the upcoming midterm elections in November, but cautioned that one person could prevent their victory: former President Donald Trump.

Luntz, who has worked as a pollster and strategist for high-profile Republicans, was interviewed on ABC's This Week. Host Jonathan Karl asked him about the news that broke earlier this week regarding Trump's accounting firm dropping his company as a client and stating that a decade's worth of financial records "should no longer be relied upon."

"Are Republicans feeling some anxiety about tying themselves too closely to Donald Trump...where it seems to be the legal walls seem to be kind of moving in on him?" Karl asked.

"So let's make some news," Luntz responded. "If you look at the polling data, you do the focus groups, you talk to independents as I've done, I find it difficult to see any other conclusion than Republicans winning control of the House, and winning control of the Senate in November."

Luntz noted that "a lot of stuff can change" and that it's unclear what's going to happen as the Russia-Ukraine crisis continues, but "Republicans should win both of those based on what's happening right now, and what we know is going to happen over the coming months."

"Only Donald Trump could stand in that way. Only Donald Trump and what he says and how he says it could prevent Republicans from winning the majority," he added.

"If he makes this about November of 2020 or January of 2021, that could cost the Republicans the Senate," he said.

In recent months, some Republicans have warned that focusing on the 2020 election could harm the party. In December, Dan Eberhart, a major Republican donor, said GOP candidates dwelling on the 2020 election and Trump's election fraud claims could hurt the GOP in the midterms. The former president has continued to baselessly claim that widespread fraud took place during the last presidential election.

In an interview last weekend, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham said that if Trump talks "about the future" he has a chance of being reelected as president in 2024.

Trump Could Prevent GOP Midterm Victory
Pollster Frank Luntz said Sunday that he believes Republicans "should win" the upcoming midterm elections in November, but cautioned that one person could prevent their victory: Former President Donald Trump. Above, Trump pauses while speaking during the 'Save America' rally at the Montgomery County Fairgrounds on January 29, 2022 in Conroe, Texas. Brandon Bell

But the South Carolina lawmaker cautioned that if Trump "continues to talk about the 2020 election, I think it hurts his cause and quite frankly it hurts the Republican party."

Also last weekend, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, a Republican, knocked Trump's focus on the 2020 election, suggesting it's making Republicans "losers."

Newsweek reached out to Trump's press office for comment, but did not receive a response before publication on Sunday afternoon.

Recent polling has shown Republicans with an advantage over Democrats heading into the 2022 midterm election season. A poll this month from the Convention of States Action (COSA) in partnership with the Trafalgar Group showed Republican candidates with support from 54.4 percent of those surveyed, and Democrats with 41.9 percent.