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By Sam Stevenson and Andrew Stanton
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President Donald Trump was asked on Thursday why he has yet to endorse Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton or incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn in the Lone Star State's GOP senatorial primary, responding in part, "I'll make a decision."
When pressed on the timing of that decision, Trump said, "maybe relatively soon, I like them both actually.”
The Texas GOP Senate primary advanced to a runoff earlier this year after neither Cornyn nor Paxton won a majority, setting up a nationally watched intraparty contest that could signal the Republican Party’s direction in a critical Sun Belt state and will determine who faces Democratic nominee James Talarico in November.
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Newsweek reached out to Cornyn and Paxton's campaigns via email on Thursday night for comment.
Meanwhile, Talarico's chances of winning the Texas Senate race have surged on prediction markets, reflecting shifting sentiment ahead of the November election.
Democrats currently have a 47 percent chance of winning the seat, compared to 55 percent for Republicans, according to Polymarket. That represents a notable change since early March. On March 5, Democratic chances of winning were 30 percent, while Republican odds stood at 71 percent, a 17-point increase for the Democrats in just over two months.
The chances are remarkable for a Democrat in Texas, long considered among the most reliably Republican states, which backed Trump by 14 points in 2024, underscoring the competitive nature of the Senate race for the 2026 midterm elections.
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Yes 55% · No 46%
View full market & trade on Polymarket
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Yes 47% · No 54%
View full market & trade on Polymarket
Why It Matters
Texas has been a reliable Republican stronghold for decades, with no Democrat winning a statewide race since the 1990s. As Trump's GOP primary endorsement looms, new polling shows Talarico ahead of both Republican candidates in potential head-to-heads.
Democrats are hoping the state becomes more competitive this year as Trump's approval ratings slip and Democratic candidates overperform in elections nationwide.
The Republicans are looking to hold on to slim majorities in both chambers of Congress in the November midterm elections, but an improved performance by the Democrats could see them take control and limit Trump's policy agenda.
The president has teased making an endorsement in this race for months while also saying that he'd ask the candidate he didn't back to immediately drop out.
What Are James Talarico's Odds of Winning Texas Senate Race?
On the prediction platform Kalshi, Talarico's chances of winning are 45 percent, compared with the Republicans' 55 percent.
In early March, the figures were significantly more lopsided, with Democratic odds near one-third of the market.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates. Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments, and broader political trends.
Supporters argue the markets synthesize polling, historical trends and new information more quickly than traditional forecasts, while critics caution they can overreact to headlines and reflect speculative sentiment rather than underlying fundamentals. U.S. lawmakers have raised concerns about insider trading risks and conflicts of interest on these platforms, though, prompting new rules that limit participation by certain groups, including members of Congress.
In practice, most analysts treat prediction markets as one signal among many—complementing, rather than replacing, traditional polling and structural indicators such as party advantage and turnout patterns.
What Do the Latest Polls for the 2026 Texas Senate Race Show?
Recent polling provides a more nuanced picture, often showing a competitive race, but not a clear Democratic breakthrough.
A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project survey of 1,200 registered voters, conducted between April 10 and 20, found Talarico leading both Republican contenders in hypothetical matchups.
Talarico led Paxton by eight points on 42 percent to 34 percent. Meanwhile, he held a seven-point advantage over Cornyn on 40 percent to 33 percent, with roughly one in five voters undecided in each case. The poll had a margin of error of +/- 2.83 percentage points.
Another poll from Texas Public Opinion Research, conducted between April 17 and 20 among 1,018 likely voters, showed Talarico ahead by three points over Cornyn (44 percent to 41 percent) and by five points over Paxton (46 percent to 41 percent). Both leads fell within the margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points.
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Those gains appear to be driven by strong support among moderates and independents, where Talarico leads by wide margins.
In contrast, a University of Houston/YouGov poll showed Cornyn narrowly ahead by one point and Paxton up by two. Meanwhile, an Emerson College survey put Cornyn three points ahead, and showed a tie between Paxton and Talarico.
On Thursday, the Austin American-Statesman reported that Lone Star Rising, a super PAC launched to help Talarico flip the seat, has raised about $9 million from billionaires and millionaires. Talarico has been critical of the influence of the donor class in politics, but recently told reporters he “cannot do anything about what any super PAC does, whether supporting me or not supporting me.”
"We've got super PACs on all sides,” he said, according to the newspaper. “We've got super PACs in the middle that are playing on both sides. It's nothing that we have control over."
Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Cook Political Report classify the race as Likely Republican. Cook defines Likely Republican as being “not considered competitive at this point” but having “the potential to become engaged.”
“Looking ahead, we would very likely move Texas Senate from Likely Republican to Leans Republican if Paxton ended up winning the runoff," Sabato’s Crystal Ball analysts Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman wrote in a March 4 update.
"We may end up making the move later this cycle even if Cornyn is the nominee, depending on the broader environment and other factors."
Republican Primary Remains Closely Contested
Attention remains focused on the Republican primary runoff scheduled for May 26, which will determine Talarico's opponent.
Polling suggests a tight and potentially volatile contest. A University of Houston survey, conducted between April 28 and May 1, found Paxton leading Cornyn on 48 percent to 45 percent among likely runoff voters, with 7 percent undecided. It surveyed 1,200 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points.
Prediction markets favor Paxton in the runoff, with Kalshi and Polymarket both giving him a 62 percent chance of winning over Cornyn.
However, Cornyn has outraised Paxton ahead of the runoff, giving him a financial advantage in the final stretch of the campaign. Cornyn raised $9 million, and Paxton raised $2.2 million.
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Other surveys show similarly narrow margins, highlighting divisions within the Republican electorate even as Democrats have largely coalesced behind a single nominee.
Some Republicans have publicly expressed concern about the broader electoral environment. Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick has warned that internal divisions and a lack of unity following the runoff could affect down-ballot races, underscoring the stakes of the contest.
Paxton heads into the runoff with strong backing from the party’s more conservative supporters and Trump-aligned voters. But many in the Republican Party do not believe he would be as strong a candidate against Talarico as Cornyn, who has easily won reelection in the past.
Paxton also has some legal baggage stemming from his 2023 impeachment in the GOP-controlled Texas House on articles that included bribery and abuse of public trust. The impeachment investigation stemmed from a proposed whistleblower lawsuit settlement, involving several of Paxton's former aides who said they were fired after accusing the attorney general of accepting bribes and other misconduct. The attorney general has denied any wrongdoing.
Paxton was acquitted in the Texas Senate. The attorney general has described the impeachment as a “weaponization of our political system was designed to intimidate, bankrupt, silence, and punish me for representing the voters instead of the entrenched political establishment.”
What Cornyn and Paxton Are Saying
Paxton on X this month touted his advertisement: "NEW AD: John Cornyn not only pushed amnesty—he told us to just deal with it. Cornyn may be good for illegals, but he’s bad for Texans."
Team Cornyn on X Thursday said, "Texas voters deserve a senator they can trust. Crooked Ken Paxton has never earned that trust, and his scandalous record proves it. I have and I will keep fighting to make Texas proud."
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