With Trump Weak in Swing State Polls, Biden Has 86 Percent Chance: Forecast

In a further fillip to Joe Biden's election campaign, the former vice president is estimated as having an 86 percent chance of beating President Donald Trump in November, according to a forecast.

A model run by The Economist, which is updated every day and combines state and national polls, as well as economic indicators, put Biden's chances on June 19 of winning the White House at 86 percent.

This is just shy of the 87 percent in the previous two days, the highest chance the model has given Biden so far, as polling in several key swing states show Biden is either leading Trump or within the margin of error.

Trump's chances, on the other hand, are now at only 13 percent, a far cry from March 14 when, according to the model, he was ahead of Biden by 51 to 48 percent.

The model also calculated that Biden would win 54 percent of the popular vote to Trump's 46 percent.

Given that Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 but still won the election, more significantly the survey shows Biden would get 339 electoral college votes compared with Trump's 199, a wide margin.

It would put Biden comfortably ahead of the 270 threshold needed to take the White House.

The former Delaware Senator is gaining momentum in swing states as the country grapples with protests against racism and the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic.

A CNBC/Change Research poll out on Wednesday showed that Biden was ahead of Trump in what are considered to be the six battleground states in 2020.

His biggest lead in these key states was in Florida, where he was ahead by seven percentage points (50 to 43). He was also beyond the two percent margin for error and ahead of Trump in Wisconsin (48 to 44) and Pennsylvania (49 to 46).

However, Biden had narrower leads within the margin for error in Michigan (47 to 45), North Carolina (47 to 45), and Arizona (45 to 44).

The poll of 2,408 likely voters took place June 12 to 14 across the six battleground states and has a 2 percent margin of error.

"Battleground voters don't just disapprove of the job Trump is doing, they increasingly prefer Biden and Democrats to Trump and Republicans when it comes to handling key issues," the poll concluded.

A majority (53 percent) of battleground voters disagreed that Trump has done enough to help people through the current economic downturn.

On Friday, Trump hit out at a Fox News poll that showed him trailing Biden by 12 points in a head-to-head matchup, by 50 to 38 percent, which is an increase of four points from last month.

The Fox poll of 1,343 randomly chosen registered voters nationwide was conducted June 13 to 16 and had a margin of sampling error of 2.5 percentage points either way.

Trump dubbed the poll "phony" and said it had been "done by the same group of haters that got it even more wrong in 2016."

Daron Shaw, who conducted the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson issued a caveat to the results, saying: "Negative emotions like fear, anxiety, and anger, can be powerful motivators for political participation.

"The lack of enthusiasm for Biden, however, does create an opening for Trump to define him as out of touch and not up to the task."

Meanwhile, a national poll by Quinnipiac University put Biden ahead of Trump by eight points, 49 percent to 41 percent, well outside the survey's 2.7 percent margin of error.

The survey of 1,332 self-identified registered voters took place June 11 to 15.

Newsweek has contacted the Biden and Trump campaigns for comment.

Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden
Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden speaks about reopening the country during a speech in Darby, Pennsylvania, on June 17, 2020. Forecasting by the Economist has put him overwhelming favorite to win the election. JIM WATSON/Getty Images