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By Hugh Cameron
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Former White House adviser Karl Rove has warned that Republicans could be in for a severe midterm reckoning if Donald Trump fails to build sufficient trust in his administration and his oversight of the U.S. economy.
In a Wednesday op-ed for The Wall Street Journal, the Deputy Chief of Staff to President George W. Bush cited surveys showing declines in the president’s approval ratings on the economy, and said his "rallies and online ranting" were fated to alienate more and more Americans ahead of next year's elections.
"It’s the season of jingle bells and sleigh bells for most of us, but for the White House, alarm bells should be clanging," wrote Rove. "The administration is making mistakes that could result in a nasty 2026 midterm defeat for President Trump’s party."
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In response, White House spokesman Kush Desai pointed to Thursday's better-than-expected inflation reading as "proof that President Trump’s robust policy agenda continues to pay off."
"In the new year, the Trump administration will continue to focus on ending Joe Biden’s affordability crisis and restoring the working-class prosperity that Americans enjoyed during President Trump’s first term," Desai told Newsweek.
Why It Matters
President Trump has remained economically optimistic in recent weeks, giving his economy a grade of "A+++++" in an interview with Politico and using a recent address from the White House to declare that "inflation is stopped." But inflation remains elevated compared to the Federal Reserve’s long-term, 2 percent target, and surveys show many Americans are pessimistic about the nation’s economic outlook as well as their own financial situation, given concern over incomes and a slowdown in the labor market.
The administration has taken steps it believes will lessen Americans’ financial burden, such as rolling back certain food tariffs and fuel-efficiency standards, but Democrats have leveraged the issue of affordability in recent elections, and other Republican voices have expressed concern about how this could impact their successes next year.
What To Know
In Wednesday’s article, Rove cited surveys showing Trump's negative approval rating on the economy. According to a RealClearPolling average, 62.8 percent of Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of inflation, with only 35.7 percent approving.
Multiple surveys echo these results, with a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll showing a sharp decline in Trump’s overall popularity compared to the beginning of his second term. And experts are similarly skeptical that the U.S. is, in Trump’s words, "poised for an economic boom the likes of which the world has never seen."
"To get top marks, the economy would need to be firing on all cylinders for the vast majority of Americans. That's not the case now," economist Claudia Sahm told Newsweek last week. "Only one in five families says they are better off financially than a year ago."
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But despite growing skepticism of his economic agenda, Rove said the White House’s remedial strategy has proven—and will continue to be—ineffective.
During a recent event in Pennsylvania—said to be the beginning of a campaign-style tour intended to drum up support ahead of the midterm elections—Trump said his administration was bringing costs down "rapidly" following "the highest inflation in history," and once again declared concerns about affordability to be a "hoax" manufactured by his opponents.
The speech, which lasted more than 90 minutes, also included attacks on Somalia-born Minnesota Democratic representative Ilhan Omar, digressions on Somali immigration to the state and a lamentation that the U.S. only accepts "people from sh**hole countries."
"With his approval numbers, Mr. Trump should be focused on building Americans’ trust in his administration," wrote Rove. "But the fun of bouncing from topic to topic and joke to joke in a rally is too much for him to resist."
As a result, Rove believes Trump is making the same mistake as his predecessor, Joe Biden, and telling voters "not to believe their own lying checkbooks."
What People Are Saying
Former Bush official Karl Rove wrote: "It doesn’t look good for the GOP next year. The White House is on the wrong track. It had better get its messaging right—both its formal attempts at directing the conversation and Mr. Trump’s spontaneous social-media rants. Or else the president won’t like the outcome. A furious party in revolt against its executive, who is plagued by Democratic investigations and opposition. Time’s a-wasting."
White House spokesman Kush Desai told Newsweek earlier this week: "Putting an end to Joe Biden’s inflation and affordability crisis has been a Day One priority for President Trump. Much work remains, but President Trump and his Administration will continue to do what’s necessary to turn Joe Biden’s economic disaster around and restore the historic economy Americans enjoyed during the first Trump term."
Gerald Friedman, a professor of economics at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst, told Newsweek: “Honestly [the economy] is not as bad as I thought it would be after April—after Liberation Day—I thought the inflation rate would be higher, I thought there’d be more disruption in supply chains, leading to even greater unemployment. So it’s not a complete F.”
“But public attitudes may be worse than the numbers indicate because of disappointment," he continued. "People were expecting something that’s not happening. But, you know, things may get a lot worse. I don’t see how they would get a lot better. I’d be betting on the downside if I were a betting man.”
Political scientist Todd Belt told Newsweek recently: "Jobs numbers have been bad and inflation remains a problem. But the most important thing is that voters still believe the economy is on the wrong track. Even though gas prices are down, prices on everything else are still increasing. There is a real risk of "stagflation"—poor growth, rising inflation and rising unemployment—on the horizon, and that is what doomed Carter's presidency."
"The longer he keeps trying to tell people that things are great when they aren't, the worse it will be for his party," he added. "People don't like to be told things are different than what they are experiencing."
What Happens Next
The midterm primary elections will begin in early 2026, with general voting taking place in November. Early polling suggests a slight edge for Democrats, though Reuters noted that Republican advantages among older voters—more likely to participate in midterm elections—mean their victory is not yet certain.
Update 12/18/25, 10 a.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from Gerald Friedman.
Update 12/18/25, 11:58 a.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from White House spokesman Kush Desai.
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