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By Sam Stevenson and Alex J. Rouhandeh
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Los Angeles voters head to the polls today with a closely contested mayoral primary that has tightened in its final days, even as prediction markets continue to favor Democratic incumbent Karen Bass.
A final UC Berkeley/Los Angeles Times poll shows Bass, who has been endorsed by former Vice President Kamala Harris, at 26 percent, Democratic LA councilmember Nithya Raman at 25 percent, and television personality Spencer Pratt, who is a registered Republican, at 22 percent, while betting markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi still give Bass roughly a two‑to‑one chance of winning.
The Bass campaign has seized on that positioning, with adviser Doug Herman telling Newsweek: “Everyone knew this would be a close race, and it shows Karen Bass in the lead heading into Tuesday… We will win.”
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In her closing pitch, Bass is touting her plans to address affordability and homelessness—key issues which she has faced criticism from her opponents.
"Under my leadership, Los Angeles will become more affordable again, like it was before, and people will be off our streets, out of the major encampments," Bass told reporters during a Monday visit to Pann's Restaurant, a family-owned establishment since 1958 with a retro dinner feel. The incumbent mayor was working the room, shaking hands and taking pictures as she faced a small swarm of reporters.
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Raman reiterated that criticism of Bass, telling Newsweek that the incumbent mayor shows a "lack of urgency on the issues that matter the most to me and to many Angelenos." The progressive challenger pointed to housing costs, describing it as the "defining characteristic of LA right now"—especially for younger individuals and families.
“There is a real generational divide in how the housing crisis is impacting people in the city," Raman said as she visited El Mercadito, which features an array of Mexican vendors selling food and crafts, in the Boyle Heights neighborhood on Monday.
Key Points
- Final public polling shows a tight three-way race, with Bass (26 percent), Raman (25 percent) and Pratt (22 percent) within the margin of error
- Prediction markets continue to favor Bass decisively, with Polymarket at 67 percent and Kalshi at 65 percent
- Undecided voters have fallen sharply from roughly 40–50 percent in March to around 10 percent in late May
- Raman and Pratt have gained ground in recent weeks, while Bass’ support has remained broadly steady
- The top-two primary system means the battle is as much about making the runoff as finishing first
- Los Angeles uses a nonpartisan election system, meaning candidates do not appear on the ballot with party labels despite their personal affiliations
A final set of polls released in late May showed the Los Angeles mayoral race tightening into a three-way contest ahead of the June 2 primary.
With few undecided voters remaining, late momentum and turnout could determine which candidates advance to the November runoff.
Angelenos voting in Tuesday’s primary will effectively decide which two of the three leading candidates move forward in a race that could reshape City Hall leadership.
Why It Matters
The race reflects voter frustration over homelessness, affordability and public safety, as well as the political fallout from the 2025 Palisades Fire. Pratt has centered his campaign on criticizing Bass’ disaster response, turning wildfire recovery into a defining issue.
What To Know
The most comprehensive late-stage snapshot comes from a UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, conducted May 19–24 among 1,913 registered voters, including 1,351 likely voters, using an online probability-based panel. The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
It found Bass at 26 percent, Raman at 25 percent and Pratt at 22 percent. Poll director Mark DiCamillo described the result as a “statistically insignificant” lead, adding that turnout would likely decide the outcome.
The same survey showed undecided voters falling to 10 percent, down from 26 percent in March, indicating that the electorate has consolidated rapidly in the final weeks.
Earlier polling painted a looser race. An Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics survey conducted May 9–10 among 1,000 likely primary voters using mixed-mode sampling (online/text/phone), with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points (plus or minus 5.2 points for a Los Angeles subsample), placed Bass at 30 percent, Pratt at 22 percent and Raman at 19 percent, with 16 percent undecided.
A Tavern Research poll commissioned by Growth Machine Fund and Abundance Network, fielded May 1–4 using a text-to-web methodology among 531 likely voters with a plus or minus 6.1 percentage-point margin of error, found Bass at 22 percent, Pratt at 18 percent and Raman at 16 percent. Undecided voters stood at 29 percent before leaners were applied.
Earlier still, a UCLA Luskin survey conducted March 15–29 among 813 likely voters using mixed-mode outreach, with a plus or minus 4 percentage-point margin of error, showed Bass at 25 percent, Pratt at 11 percent and Raman at 9 percent—with a striking 40 percent undecided.
A UC Berkeley/Los Angeles Times poll conducted March 9–15 among 840 likely voters using similar methodology found Bass at 25 percent, Raman at 17 percent and Pratt at 14 percent, with 26 percent undecided.
Taken together, the data points to a clear pattern: Bass has led throughout, but her support has not expanded significantly, while both Raman and Pratt have gained as undecided voters have made up their minds.
What The Prediction Markets Show
Prediction markets translate trading activity into percentage odds, offering real-time sentiment but sometimes diverging from polls due to speculation, liquidity constraints and participant bias.
As voting begins, those markets continue to strongly favor Bass.
On Polymarket, Bass was trading at roughly 67 percent, compared with around 24 percent for Pratt and 13 percent for Raman, based on more than $5 million in trading volume, at the time of writing.
Kalshi, a U.S.-regulated exchange, showed a similar hierarchy, with Bass at about 65 percent, Pratt at 25 percent and Raman at 12 percent.
Markets suggest Bass is highly likely to reach the runoff—and remains the favorite to ultimately win—even as polling shows a much tighter contest for positioning.
What’s Driving The Race
Pratt, who lost his home in the Palisades Fire, has repeatedly argued that city leadership failed in preparedness and response, using that narrative to position himself as a change candidate.
Raman, meanwhile, has targeted Bass’ homelessness strategy and broader governance approach. "I will say that the city has also been hampered by politically-driven decision making about budgets and policies that I think are acting against the best interests of Angelinos,” Raman told Newsweek.
The result is a three-way contest defined by distinct voter coalitions rather than a simple incumbent-versus-challenger dynamic.
What Happens Next
Under Los Angeles’ nonpartisan system, the top two finishers in Tuesday’s primary will advance to a November runoff unless a candidate wins more than 50 percent.
With polling margins narrowing and undecided voters largely gone, the outcome may hinge less on persuasion and more on which campaigns successfully turn out their supporters.
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