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By Flynn Nicholls
US News Reporter
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Today marks the final day to register for both in person and early voting in two battleground states, Arizona and Georgia, which will likely be key to determining the next president on November 5.
Voters in both states will be electing the president, as well as other federal, state, and local officials; Arizona voters will also be voting for a U.S. Senator to replace independent incumbent Kyrsten Sinema.
Georgia voters can check their registration on the Georgia Secretary of State's website, which can confirm if their registration is active and which polling place to go to. Voters can register online here or at their local county election office. Applications must be submitted by midnight today. Early voting begins next week, on October 15.
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Arizona voters can check their registration here, which can confirm if their registration is active and which polling place to go to. Voters can register online here or at their local county election office. Applications must be submitted by today. Early ballots will be posted to voters on Wednesday.
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Polling in Georgia suggests an incredibly close race. Donald Trump won by over 100,000 votes in 2016, and Joe Biden narrowly carried the state by 11,779 votes in 2020, a number made famous by Trump's January 2, 2021 phone call to Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, where Trump told an official 11,780 votes "would overturn the loss."
Earlier this year, Trump dominated polling in the state against Joe Biden, but polling has tightened since Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee. On October 7, FiveThirtyEight put Trump ahead by 1.4 points, on 48.4 percent to Harris on 47.
One poll, conducted by Quinnipiac University between September 25 and 29, gave Trump a six-point lead, more than in any other recent poll.
Charles S. Bullock III, a professor of political science a the University of Georgia, told Newsweek that Georgia voters were concerned with the economy across political lines, Republicans are concerned with immigration, and Democrats are concerned with abortion, although this is less significant when asked about their top issues. He said Harris needed to mobilize key demographics to win the state.
"For the last decade or so, young voters have been strongly Democratic, but this year polling does not show the youth vote being as pro-Dem as in the past," Bullock said.
"In addition to weakness with young voters, Harris's biggest problem is that she is not getting the share of the Black vote needed to win. My guess is that she is struggling with Black men. They tend to be about twice as likely to vote GOP as Black women. To replicate Biden's Georgia performance, Harris can lose only 8 percent of Black women and 17 percent of Black men."
Bullock also said that there was a share of college-educated white Republicans who live in suburban Georgia who will not vote for Trump.
"Some will vote for Harris, some will grudgingly vote for Trump while stifling a gag and others will vote Libertarian or skip the presidential election," Bullock said.
Arizona polling paints a similar picture, where Trump strongly led Biden earlier in the year, but the race has tightened since Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee. On October 7, FiveThirtyEight put Trump ahead by 1.6 points, on 48.2 percent to Harris on 46.6.
Trump led by four points in the most recent Arizona poll, which was conducted by RMG Research between September 30 and October 2. It surveyed 783 likely voters.
Morgan Ackley, a spokesperson for the Republican National Committee, told Newsweek that the RNC and the Trump campaign were working to ensure success in November.
"Our highly engaged and energetic operation is focused on turning out votes and highlighting the contrast between Kamala Harris' weakness and failures with President Trump's record of success," Ackley said. "This November, voters will turn out and support President Donald J. Trump and his policies."
In the Arizona Senate race, Democrat Ruben Gallego is dominating Republican Kari Lake by double digits in polling. Lake is a staunch ally of Trump, and a prominent MAGA politician.
The seat is currently occupied by Kyrsten Sinema, who left the Democratic Party to become an independent in December 2023, and then chose not to run for reelection.
Lake shot to national prominence as a figure in former president Donald Trump's MAGA movement after stepping down as a news anchor to run for Arizona governor in 2021. She ran a campaign focused on securing the U.S.-Mexico border, protecting gun rights, and protesting COVID-19 lockdowns, "cancel culture" and "woke" school curriculums.
She lost the election to Katie Hobbs by just over 17,000 votes, but refused to concede because she believed the election was unfair.
Lake's 2022 loss has continued to follow her into her 2024 Senate campaign. This year she has seen multiple legal setbacks, including in March, admitting that she defamed a fellow Republican by accusing him of a plot to rig the 2022 gubernatorial election, and in June losing her sixth appeal contesting the results of that same election
Arizona-based pollster and political analyst Paul Bentz told Newsweek that Lake would struggle in November.
"Gallego did not have a primary opponent and was able to define himself and tout his blue collar upbringing and military success while Lake really hasn't taken the time to reintroduce herself to the electorate following her gubernatorial run," Bentz said. "It's likely that she will narrow the margin some as we get closer to the election, but just as we saw MAGA republicans struggle in Arizona in 2022, she has a very steep hill to climb."
Bentz said that Harris replacing Biden at the top of the ticket had increased enthusiasm among younger voters, but pointed out they are the least likely demographic to show up on Election Day.
"Our overall population growth and increased density has helped Democrats in the urban areas, but our suburban and rural areas have also grown more Republican," Bentz said. "Ultimately, this race will be determined by some key swing areas in Maricopa County with high wage, high education attainment voters generally leaning Republican, but rejecting MAGA candidates in the last two cycles."
Newsweek has contacted the campaigns of Harris, Lake, and Gallego for comment.
Update 10/9/24, 2:47 a.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from Charles S. Bullock III, Morgan Ackley, and Paul Bentz.
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