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By Sam Stevenson
Associate News Editor
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As Americans vote in the midterm elections today, President Donald Trump is underwater in 39 states and every major battleground, according to new polling.
Trump has repeatedly urged Republican supporters to behave as if he were personally on the ballot during a campaign blitz designed to protect the party’s congressional majorities.
That message makes his own standing particularly relevant as voters decide which party should control Congress.
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Costas Panagopoulos, a distinguished professor of political science at Northeastern University, told Newsweek that midterm results are "very closely linked" to approval of the incumbent president’s party. They allow voters to deliver a verdict on the administration’s first two years.
"In many ways, midterms are referenda on incumbent party performance," Panagopoulos said.
The figures come from Civiqs’ rolling tracker of registered voters. This is based on 140,354 responses collected between January 20, 2025 and November 2, 2026.
A Newsweek analysis compares the latest state ratings with those recorded when Trump began his second term, with net approval calculated as approval minus disapproval.
Nationally, 33 percent approve of Trump’s job performance and 60 percent disapprove, giving him a net approval rating of minus 27.
Use the map below to explore Trump’s net approval rating in every state as Americans head to the polls.
Nine States Still Rate Trump Positively
Trump’s remaining positive ratings are concentrated in Republican territory.
Wyoming is his strongest state at plus 18, followed by North Dakota at plus 12. Arkansas stands at plus 8 and West Virginia at plus 6, while Oklahoma records plus 3.
Alabama, Utah, Idaho and Montana are at plus 2.
Kansas and South Dakota are evenly divided, with approval matching disapproval in both states.
Even among Trump’s strongest states, his position is considerably weaker than in January 2025. His net approval has fallen 29 points in Wyoming and West Virginia, 32 points in Idaho and 28 points in Oklahoma.
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Trump’s ‘On the Ballot’ Message
Trump has sought to make himself central to the midterms, repeatedly telling supporters during his campaign blitz to vote as if his name appeared alongside the Republican candidates.
Panagopoulos said the most likely effect of Trump’s rallies is to mobilize committed Republicans rather than persuade voters who remain undecided.
"The rallies will likely do little to persuade voters because most voters who either attend them or are exposed to them in some ways already have fixed predispositions about the president," he said.
They can still energize supporters to vote, donate, volunteer or encourage others to participate.
But Panagopoulos said evidence of Trump’s effect in congressional races is "mixed at best," with the possibility that his involvement could prove ineffective or even counterproductive for some candidates.
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What the Demographic Data Shows
Trump’s weakest age-group rating comes among voters aged 18 to 34, with 21 percent approving and 72 percent disapproving. Among those aged 35 to 49, the split is 26 percent to 65 percent.
Older voters are less negative, although disapproval still leads. Among voters aged 50 to 64, 42 percent approve and 52 percent disapprove. Those aged 65 and older divide 43 percent to 52 percent.
Women disapprove by 66 percent to 28 percent, compared with a 54-to-39 split among men.
Education provides another divide. Approval stands at 24 percent among postgraduates, 31 percent among college graduates and 36 percent among noncollege graduates, with disapproval leading across all three groups.
Where Approval Has Fallen the Most
Trump’s net approval is lower in every state than it was on January 20, 2025.
The steepest declines include:
- Kentucky: down 38 points, from plus 23 to minus 15
- Idaho: down 32 points, from plus 34 to plus 2
- Tennessee: down 29 points, from plus 25 to minus 4
- West Virginia: down 29 points, from plus 35 to plus 6
- Wyoming: down 29 points, from plus 47 to plus 18
- Oklahoma: down 28 points, from plus 31 to plus 3
- Ohio: down 27 points, from plus 8 to minus 19
- Iowa: down 26 points, from plus 6 to minus 20
- South Dakota: down 26 points, from plus 26 to 0
- Nevada: down 25 points, from 0 to minus 25
- Texas: down 25 points, from plus 6 to minus 19
Many of the sharpest declines have occurred in states that gave Trump comfortable positive ratings at the beginning of his second term.
Every Major Battleground Is Underwater
Trump enters Election Day with negative net approval across the battleground map:
- Arizona: minus 18
- Florida: minus 15
- Georgia: minus 24
- Michigan: minus 26
- Nevada: minus 25
- North Carolina: minus 18
- Ohio: minus 19
- Pennsylvania: minus 23
- Wisconsin: minus 23
Several of these states were positive or evenly divided at the start of Trump’s second term.
Panagopoulos said congressional elections have become increasingly nationalized, meaning voters are often guided more by national issues than local considerations.
That creates a particular challenge for Republicans because the party controls the presidency and Congress, he said. "If voters are unhappy, they know where to lay the blame."
What the White House Says
The White House has emphasized Trump’s position as leader of the Republican Party and argued that his record will motivate the coalition that elected him.
Spokesman Davis Ingle described Trump as the GOP’s "unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator." He added that the president is committed to maintaining Republican majorities in Congress.
Ingle cited tax cuts, prescription-drug costs, border security, energy production, private-sector employment and retirement accounts as evidence of the administration’s record.
He framed the election as a choice between Trump’s "winning, commonsense agenda" and what he called Democrats’ "extreme liberal policies and obstruction."
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Independent Voters Could Prove Decisive
Trump retains strong support among Republicans, with 78 percent approving and 12 percent disapproving. Independents present a sharply different picture: 26 percent approve, while 66 percent disapprove.
Panagopoulos said independents were an important, potentially decisive part of Trump’s 2024 coalition, but their views of the Republican Party have since deteriorated.
"It appears that a huge segment of independent voters have defected from Republican support in this midterm cycle," Panagopoulos said. He added that the movement "will carry a lot of weight" on Election Day.
Republican candidates could still outperform Trump where they have run effective campaigns or face weaker opponents.
Such results would demonstrate the continued importance of candidate quality and local conditions despite the increasingly national character of congressional elections.
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What the Results Will Show
Panagopoulos said evidence of a national wave would include numerous competitive races moving in the same direction across a diverse range of states and districts.
A wave would not necessarily require every vulnerable seat to change hands. Movement in one party’s vote share could still reveal a national shift even where incumbents survive.
He also urged caution when judging the final polls, noting that identifying likely voters is "as much an art as it is a science." A race showing one candidate narrowly ahead but still within the margin of error should be understood as statistically even rather than as a firm lead.
Nor would a Republican defeat necessarily dictate the result of the 2028 presidential election. Panagopoulos noted that parties have recovered from major midterm losses before succeeding in the following presidential cycle.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Sam Stevenson and James Debens
Register for our November 10 discussion, 'Newsweek Webinar: How the Politics of AI Could Shape Midterms,' which will examine how AI policy played in key races, data centers, lobbying and the political lines that emerged.
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