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By Joe Kozlowski
Sports Team Lead
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While NFL schedules may seem impartial, not every team's season is created equally. Sometimes, the luck of the draw will have you running a gauntlet of playoff teams and powerhouses, while other years you'll get a slate full of sub-.500 squads.
With the 2023 regular season nearing, which reality will your team be facing?
Since we've already looked at the clubs with the toughest assignments, let's flip to the opposite side of the spectrum. These are the NFL teams with the easiest strength of schedule.
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What is strength of schedule?
Upon first glance, NFL strength of schedule sounds like a fairly intuitive process. You look at each team's slate of games, and you decide how hard things are going to be. In practice, though, there are multiple ways to arrive at the conclusion.
Some outlets, like SportsBettingDime.com, use projected NFL win totals. That metric averages each club's over/under line from across multiple sportsbooks, and that number determines the difficulty of each game. Other publications—such as CBS Sports—combine winning percentages from the previous year to rate how easy or hard a 17-game slate is.
For our ranking, we're going to go by the latter method. So, with that out of the way, let's get into the schedules.
5. Tennessee Titans: .448 opponents winning percentage
Last year, the AFC South seemed like a division that no one wanted to win. That reality helps explain why the Titans have an easier schedule.
Besides playing the rest of the division, Tennessee crosses over with the AFC North and the NFC South. While those divisions boast talented teams, there are also some weaker matchups there, with the Browns, Falcons, Saints and Panthers all coming off 10-loss seasons. The Titans also face the Chargers, Dolphins and Seahawks. Those games add challenge, but it's not as bad as facing teams like the Chiefs or Eagles.
With all of that in mind, the Titans could be a sneaky team to watch this season. With star running back Derrick Henry and an easier schedule, they could push for a playoff berth.
4. Indianapolis Colts: .434 opponents winning percentage
Stop me if you've heard this before, but playing in the AFC South means you have some easier games built into your schedule.
Just like the Titans, the Colts play their divisional opponents, plus the AFC North and NFC South. Their three extra games, though, come against the Rams, Raiders and Patriots, all of whom finished below .500 last season.
It will be interesting to see how that strength of schedule affects the Colts' new star. An easier slate of games should give rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson as gentle of an introduction to the league as possible. If star running back Jonathan Taylor—who is seeking a trade—stays in Indy, the young signal caller could impress this year.
3. Houston Texans: .431 opponents winning percentage
The Texans finished in the cellar of the AFC South in 2022, so it's only fitting that they have an easier schedule.
Beyond the games we've already established—the division, the AFC North and the NFC South—Houston will host Arizona and Denver while making a trip to New York (and New Jersey) to face the Jets. While the first two matchups sound manageable, it's reasonable to believe that Gang Green will be better with former Packer Aaron Rodgers under center.
It's also worth noting that the Texans have a (comparatively) tough start to the season, facing the Ravens, Colts, Jaguars and Steelers in the first four weeks. If things go sour in those opening games, it could get ugly the rest of the way.
With that being said, though, rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud could seize the opportunity presented by an easier schedule and make things happen ASAP.
2. New Orleans Saints: .427 opponents winning percentage
Finally, we can change divisions and jump from the AFC South to the NFC South.
Three of the division's four teams finishing below .500—New Orleans, Carolina and Atlanta—works in the Saints' favor. Besides their six divisional games, they will face the NFC North and the AFC South, as well as the New York Giants (a playoff team last year), the Rams and the Patriots.
When you consider the schedule, the arrival of quarterback Derek Carr from Las Vegas and their strong preseason, the Saints could be a team with a golden opportunity. Given that the Buccaneers won the divisional title with an 8-9 record last year, fans in the Big Easy could be licking their chops.
1. Atlanta Falcons: .417 opponents winning percentage
Once again, we're sticking in the division and crossing the NFC South to Atlanta.
Just like the Saints, the Falcons will face the rest of the division, the NFC North and the AFC South. Their three additional games, however, come against the Jets, Cardinals and Commanders. Arizona shouldn't provide too stiff of a test, but the other games could be trickier than the winning percentages indicate. The Jets, again, have Rodgers, and Washington was a middle-of-the-road team last season.
What about the rest of the NFL?
So, we've looked at the easiest and the hardest strength of schedules in the NFL. What about the teams in the middle?
The entire league's strength of schedule, sorted from hardest to easiest, can be seen below.
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