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By Ewan Palmer
News Reporter
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Republican Florida state Senator Randy Fine is at risk of losing Tuesday's special election, despite the Sunshine State's 6th Congressional District being heavily GOP friendly, according to recent polls.
One survey has Fine's lead over Democrat Josh Weil within the margin of error, while an internal Republican poll shows the state senator trailing his opponent.
Newsweek has contacted both Fine and Weil's campaign teams for comment via email.
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Why It Matters
Even if Weil does not win Tuesday's special election in Florida, Democrats argue that overperforming in the race would indicate the party is on track to retake control of the House in the 2026 midterms.
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What to Know
Florida's 6th Congressional District was previously represented by Michael Waltz, who vacated the seat to become President Donald Trump's national security adviser.
The area heavily leans Republican. Waltz won reelection in November 2024 by 33 points, and Trump defeated then Vice President Kamala Harris in the district by 30 points.
The few polls available on the race suggest Fine may significantly underperform Tuesday, or that Weil could even pull off a surprise victory.
A poll released March 26 showed Fine, a Trump-endorsed firebrand, with a 4-point lead over Weil (48 percent to 44)—well below the 33-point margin Waltz achieved just five months ago.
The Florida Politics survey, conducted by St. Pete Polls, of 403 likely voters in the 6th District was conducted March 22 and has a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points, more than Fine's lead.
Elsewhere, an internal poll conducted in late March by Trump-aligned polling firm Fabrizio Ward showed Weil leading Fine by 3 points (44 percent to 41 percent), with 10 percent undecided, according to Politico.
A previous February poll from Fabrizio Ward had shown Weil trailing Fine by 12 points, reported GZERO Media.
Several Republican figures have voiced concerns that Fine will underperform in Tuesday's race, potentially giving Democrats a much-needed post-2024 elections boost.
At a recent press conference, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis said if Fine fails to achieve something like a 30-point victory margin, it would be a "candidate-specific issue" rather than a reflection of voter backlash against Trump or the GOP.
Representative Richard Hudson of North Carolina, chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, told reporters on March 24 that Fine "needs to do better" with regards to fundraising.
Weil is reported to have raised $10 million for his congressional bid—more than 10 times as much as Fine. Federal Election Commission filings in mid-March showed Weil had more than $1.2 million in cash on hand, compared to Fine's $92,600.
Fine has dismissed concerns about his campaign, telling Politico it's "going fine," and adding, "I wish the Democrats weren't lighting $10 million on fire." A spokesperson for Fine's campaign previously told Newsweek the Republican will be "victorious" on Tuesday.
Early voting in the 6th District special election, which closed on Friday, is plus 9 Republican, according to data from the Florida Division of Elections.
More Republican voters typically cast their ballots on Election Day, suggesting Fine's actual margin of victory could be greater.
What People Are Saying
Randy Fine campaign spokesperson Bryan Piligra previously told Newsweek: "The only thing that matters is making sure Republicans are united to defeat radical Democrats like Josh Weil, who will stop at nothing to destroy President Trump. When Randy is victorious on April 1, it will be because of the strength of the Trump agenda and the faith the American people have in him. Randy is grateful for the president's unwavering confidence in him. The voters of CD 6 know they can count on Randy to fight fiercely alongside President Trump to Make America Great Again."
Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried told Newsweek on Monday: "These special elections aren't just important races for Floridians; they are important for all Americans. If Florida Democrats continue the national trend and overperform on Tuesday, any Republican in a close seat should be scared about their reelection chances in 2026. Any blue wave in the next few cycles has to start in the South."
Scott Tranter, director of data science at Decision Desk HQ, told The Hill: "Given GOP voters tend to turn out more on Election Day, we expect the electorate to settle in the R+14 range once all the [6th District] votes are counted Tuesday. All that being said, we have seen special elections recently where the Democratic candidate has overcome R+15 electorates. That's why this race remains close in a district President Trump won handily in 2024."
What Happens Next
Results for Florida's 6th District special election are expected to be announced Tuesday night.
Another special election takes place Tuesday in the GOP-friendly 1st Congressional District, where Republican candidate and Florida Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis faces off against Democratic hopeful Gay Valimont.
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