Seven Days Until Election, More Money Has Been Bet on Trump Winning Than Biden

With just seven days until the U.S. election, more money has been bet on President Donald Trump winning than Joe Biden, bookmakers have revealed.

This is in contrast to online polls, which paint Democrat Biden as the clear favorite, with Trump's chances of clinching a second term continuing to slide.

However, online bettors have been happy to take on the oddsmakers, seemingly confident of an upset next week.

Trump versus Biden Polls
A poll released by Betfair shows how Trump and Biden's popularity has tracked over the past year. Betfair

Leading U.K. bookmaker Betfair told Newsweek the current odds on both candidates give Biden a 66 percent implied probability of clinching victory and Trump a 34 percent chance.

However, in a strange twist, the worse odds that bookmakers give Trump, the more bettors clamor to back him.

It appears that Biden's dominance in the betting isn't deterring online bettors backing the president for a second run in office.

"We are still seeing plenty of money for the POTUS and in fact more money has been bet on Trump in this race, with £91m compared to £84m on Joe Biden," Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom told Newsweek.

"It's also worth remembering the U-turn the market saw on election night in 2016, where Hillary Clinton went in the big odds-on favorite. And we all know how that turned out."

Bookmaker PaddyPower made similar observations, telling Newsweek that the amount of money being bet on Biden has "increased significantly" over the last few days.

"The amount of money being bet on Biden has increased significantly, but Trump is still far more popular," a spokesperson said.

"In terms of the number of bets placed in the last seven days, 80 percent have been on Trump compared to 20 percent on Biden".

Oddschecker, which aggregates betting data from dozens of bookmakers, said that over the past weekend, twice as many bets were placed on Trump to win than Biden, in an intriguing trend that has gathered momentum over the past month.

Just under 65 percent of all wagers placed on the 2020 U.S. election over the weekend were on Trump, compared to the 31.7 percent placed on Biden, a spokesperson for the company told Newsweek.

In fact, Trump has been the popular bet since the betting market opened, with the majority of bettors believing the 2020 election will follow the same pattern as 2016's shock result.

Like Biden, Hillary Clinton was the bookmakers' favorite heading into the 2016 election.

Even though the odds were stacked against him, 61 percent of wagers on the 2016 election were placed on Donald Trump.

Trump's 2016 election odds implied he had only a 16.7 percent chance of winning in late October but 47.6 percent of wagers were placed on Trump in the same month, Oddschecker reports.

Biden has been the betting favorite to win the 2020 Presidential election since May.

It was a different story at the start of the year with the former Vice President's election odds implying he had as little as a 13 percent chance of becoming the next POTUS.

Trump polls
More money has been bet on Trump in the lead up to the election, with £91m compared to £84m on Joe Biden. Dan Kitwood/Getty

"With the U.S. election just seven days away, speculation on how the election will go is intensifying, with polls seeming to suggest a Biden victory is on the cards," Betfair's Sam Rosbottom said.

"With over £180m [$232m] bet on the outcome of the election on Betfair Exchange, Biden's odds of 1/2 suggest he has a 67 percent chance of coming out on top after the election on November 3rd, with Trump's odds of 2/1 suggesting his chances of victory are just 33 percent. That gives Biden over double the implied probability of election than his rival".

The 2020 U.S. election is set to be the biggest-ever betting event with wagers worth close to $400m expected by November 3, according to Betfair.

Nearly $200m has already been spent tens of millions of dollars still expected to come in as Election Day approaches.

The bookmaker said a record £300m could be bet on the 2020 election result.

In 2016, £75m was bet once polls closed, suggesting much of the activity is likely to come in the latter stages of the race.

"The betting trends indicate that £300m or more will be bet on who will win ... which means the 2020 election is on-course to become the biggest single betting event of all time by eclipsing 2016's £199m," Rosbottom said.

However, the spokesman added, "Whilst more money has been bet on Donald Trump, it could be telling that the ten biggest stakes are all on Joe Biden."

Multiple bets worth more than $100,000 have been placed on Biden winning the presidency, with the largest single bet of the campaign—£156,961 on September 27—backing the Democratic nominee.

None of the ten biggest bets on the 2020 U.S. presidential election have backed the incumbent president to win again, Betfair data showed.

The biggest bet in the 2016 election came in for Clinton with £135,317 wagered.

Pundits rely on betting markets in the U.K. and elsewhere as political gambling is banned in the U.S.

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