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By Tyler Everett
Sports Betting Editor
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The second-to-last week of the 2025 NFL regular season is upon us.
No matter how you feel about a Christmas Day tripleheader that could showcase as many as three third-string quarterbacks, there's a ton to look forward to in Week 17 as a number of teams across the league look to clinch division titles and/or playoff berths.
Entering this weekend, 10 teams have clinched playoff berths and 14 have been mathematically eliminated from postseason contention.
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That leaves eight -- the Steelers, Ravens, Texans, Colts, Packers, Lions, Panthers and Bucs -- battling for the final four playoff spots.
Early NFL ATS Picks YTD Record: 129-109-3
- Week 1: 7-9
- Week 2: 9-7
- Week 3: 9-7
- Week 4: 6-10
- Week 5: 8-6
- Week 6: 10-5
- Week 7: 11-4
- Week 8: 3-11 🤡🤡🤡
- Week 9: 9-5
- Week 10: 8-6
- Week 11: 6-8-1
- Week 12: 8-5-1
- Week 13: 8-8
- Week 14: 8-6
- Week 15: 9-7
- Week 16: 10-5-1
All odds below via DraftKings; all kickoff times ET
Cowboys (-7) at Commanders -- Thurs., 1 p.m. (Netflix)
Pick: Cowboys -7
The NFL's Christmas Day tripleheader kicks off with a clash between the Cowboys (6-8-1) and the Commanders (4-11). Dallas would probably be a clear favorite even with Commanders QB Marcus Mariota healthy.
With Mariota's status uncertain after he injured his right hand on Saturday, a big win by the road favorites feels like the most likely outcome, even if Washington once again starts off strong (the Commanders outscored Philadelphia 10-3 in the first half last week).
Lions (-6) at Vikings -- Thurs., 4:30 p.m. (Netflix)
Pick: Lions -6
The Lions (8-7) haven't been eliminated from the postseason yet, but they need to win their final two games and have Green Bay lose to both Baltimore and Minnesota in order to overtake the Packers for the final NFC wild card spot.
I'm confident in Dan Campbell's team finishing the season strong, though. And I'd be especially shocked to see Detroit fail to take care of business against the Vikings (7-8), who will likely be starting undrafted rookie QB Max Brosmer.
Broncos (-13.5) at Chiefs -- Thurs., 8:15 p.m. (Prime Video)
Pick: Chiefs +13.5
A disastrous season for Kansas City (6-9) took another step in the wrong direction in Week 16, as backup QB Gardner Minshew suffered a season-ending knee injury. That means that we're going to see third-stringer Chris Oladukun at the helm for the Chiefs in primetime.
The Broncos (12-3) are coming off their first loss in months, but still have a chance to capture the 1-seed in the AFC. It's hard to imagine Denver losing this one.
But for some reason, I'm not convinced they'll blow out their division rival on the road in this spot. Remember, Denver's first four AFC West matchups this year were all decided by 7 points or less, including three by just three points.
Texans at Chargers (-2.5) -- Sat., 4:30 p.m. (NFL Network)
Pick: Texans +2.5
The Chargers (11-4) keep finding ways to win, no matter how much pressure Justin Herbert has to deal with, but I'm not willing to put any money on the L.A. O-line holding up against the Texans' outstanding defense.
Houston (10-5) was far from dominant in an ugly win over the Raiders at home last Sunday, but I expect the Texans to keep this one close, if not pull off the slight upset, as long as they can put together a decent offensive showing.
Ravens at Packers (-2.5) -- Sat., 8 p.m. (Peacock)
Pick: Ravens +2.5
Amid uncertainty around not only whether Jordan Love (concussion) and Lamar Jackson (back), but also Packers backup QB Malik Willis (shoulder) will be active on Saturday night, this is one worth waiting to wager on until at least Friday, if not steering clear altogether.
For now, though, in a game both the Ravens (7-8) and Packers (9-5-1) have to win to keep their playoff hopes alive, I'll lean (ever so slightly) toward Baltimore, as I like Jackson's chances of playing through a back contusion a bit more than I like Love's chances of being cleared from the concussion protocol.
The fact that Willis is questionable (though Adam Schefter reported on the Pat McAfee show on Monday that Willis or Love will be available) makes it that much tougher to lay the points with the Packers.
Cardinals at Bengals (-7) -- Sun., 1 p.m. (FOX)
Pick: Bengals -7
The Bengals (5-10) are out of the playoff picture, but the offense has largely played well since Joe Burrow's return to action in late November. Cincinnati is just 2-2 over the last four weeks, but it moved the ball with ease in three of those games, and I expect Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and Co. to light up an Arizona defense that has struggled to get stops lately.
The Cardinals (3-12) are not only on a seven-game losing streak, but they've lost five of those games by at least a touchdown. That makes Cincinnati tempting, especially while this line is Bengals -7 (don't be surprised if it moves to Bengals -7.5 by the time this game gets underway on Sunday).
Steelers (-3.5) at Browns -- Sun., 1 p.m. (CBS)
Pick: Steelers -3.5
The Steelers (9-6) need just one win over the last two weeks to clinch the AFC North title. Since an ugly 26-7 loss to the Bills dropped Pittsburgh to 6-6, Aaron Rodgers and Co. have won three in a row, taking down the Ravens, Dolphins and Lions.
Against rookie QB Shedeur Sanders and the Browns (3-12) -- who have had at least two turnovers in five straight weeks -- I like Pittsburgh to not only win, but cover, to lock up a fifth playoff appearance in the last six years.
Saints (-2.5) at Titans -- Sun., 1 p.m. (CBS)
Pick: Saints -2.5
I'm a few weeks late to the Tyler Shough bandwagon, but I'm on board for the final two weeks of the season. New Orleans (5-10) is on a three-game winning streak that includes victories over the Bucs and Panthers, plus a blowout win over the Jets last Sunday, and it is hard to resist at -2.5 this weekend.
Cam Ward and the Titans (3-12) have won two of their last three games, and the Tennessee offense has scored at least 24 points in four of its last five games.
Given Ward's strong recent play, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Titans keep this game close. That being said, I'm done -- for at least the rest of this season -- betting against Shough and the Saints.
Jaguars (-6.5) at Colts -- Sun., 1 p.m. (FOX)
Pick: Colts +6.5
Given the state of the Colts secondary and how hot the Jaguars (11-4) are right now, the obvious (smart??) play would be to take Jacksonville to roll.
But at the risk of overthinking this one, I'm leaning toward the Colts (8-7) keeping this game respectable. Remarkably, Indy is getting above-average play from Philip Rivers. He avoided mistakes in Seattle two weeks ago, and he arguably played as well as anyone on the Colts roster in their Week 16 loss to the 49ers.
As long as the Indy defense can put up some resistance against Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars, I like the Colts to cover as 6.5-point home 'dogs.
Buccaneers (-5.5) at Dolphins -- Sun., 1 p.m. (FOX)
Pick: Buccaneers -5.5
Laying the points with so many road favorites this week makes me a bit uneasy, but I'd rather count on the Bucs (7-8) to play well in a must-win game than Quinn Ewers and the Dolphins (6-9).
Ewers put up solid numbers in his first career start last Sunday (20-of-30 passing for 260 yards, with 0 touchdowns and 2 interceptions), but I'm not sold on the seventh-round rookie keeping this game close for 60 minutes, especially if the Miami defense once again struggles.
Baker Mayfield's recent play has not inspired a ton of confidence (to put it lightly). But against a defense that has given up 73 points total to Aaron Rodgers and Joe Burrow the last weeks, I think Mayfield will make just enough plays for the Bucs to keep their playoff hopes alive (and, 🤞, cover).
Patriots (-13.5) at Jets -- Sun., 1 p.m. (FOX)
Pick: Patriots -13.5
The Jets (3-12) have lost three straight games by at least 20 points. In a QB matchup between MVP candidate Drake Maye and Jets rookie Brady Cook, this is one game I'm not going to second-guess. The Pats (12-3) need a win to keep pace with the Broncos for the 1-seed in the AFC, and I don't expect them to slip up against Cook and the reeling Jets.
Seahawks (-7.5) at Panthers -- Sun., 1 p.m. (CBS)
Pick: Panthers +7.5
The Panthers (8-7) -- who have now alternated wins and losses for eight straight weeks -- are coming off a win ... enough said??
While a loss to Seattle (12-3) to keep that pattern alive shouldn't surprise anyone, there's reason to like Carolina to keep this game close at home. The Panthers are 5-2 at Bank of America Stadium this season, with one of those losses coming with Bryce Young sidelined against the Bills back in October.
The Seahawks have notched a handful of blowout wins this year, and I imagine they'll be a popular bet to cover this weekend. But their offense has been streaky enough in recent weeks that I'm going to fade them on the road.
Remember, Carolina has already pulled off two of the biggest betting upsets of the season, beating Green Bay as a 13-point underdog on the road and the Rams as 10-point home 'dogs.
Giants at Raiders (-1.5) -- Sun., 4:05 p.m. (CBS)
Pick: Raiders -1.5
Like most bettors, I'm not dying to invest in either the 2-13 Giants or the 2-13 Raiders right now.
I'll reluctantly take the latter at home in this one, though. Las Vegas is coming off one of its better performances in recent weeks, pushing the red-hot Texans for 60 minutes last Sunday. The Giants, on the other hand, were unable to move the ball on Minnesota and lost to the QB duo of JJ McCarthy and Max Brosmer at home in Week 16.
Eagles at Bills (-1.5) -- Sun., 4:25 p.m. (FOX)
Pick: Bills -1.5
The Eagles (10-5) and Bills (11-4) meet in a potential Super Bowl preview that stands out as one of the best matchups of the weekend.
Nothing would surprise me in this game, so I'll go chalk and take Buffalo in what should be a close one at home.
I'm torn here, but I've not seen quite enough from Jalen Hurts and Philly to back them to outscore Josh Allen and the Bills in Orchard Park.
Bears at 49ers (-3) -- Sun., 8:20 p.m. (NBC/Peacock)
Pick: Bears +3
There's a ton to like about Caleb Williams and the Bears (11-4) offensively, but IMO, it's the recent play of the finally-healthy Chicago D that makes this team a live dog against the 49ers (11-4).
While both Chicago (11-2 over its last 13 games) and San Francisco (winners of five straight) have been impressive lately, the Bears are a bit more trustworthy after going 3-1 in recent weeks against likely playoff teams Pittsburgh, Green Bay (twice) and Philadelphia.
Over the last eight weeks, the Niners whipped the Giants, Cardinals, Browns and Titans, but they went just 2-2 against teams with winning records (with wins over the Panthers and Colts and losses to the Texans and Rams).
Rams (-7.5) at Falcons -- Mon., 8:15 p.m. (ESPN/ABC)
Pick: Rams -7.5
I don't have a hot take here.
I don't expect the Rams (11-4), who should be fresh after playing on Thursday night in Week 15, to lose for the second week in a row, and I don't expect 37-year-old Kirk Cousins to hold up against L.A.'s excellent pass rush.
The Falcons (6-9) have won two games in a row, but they haven't beaten a team of the Rams' caliber since they took down the Bills on SNF back in Week 6.
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