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By Andrew Stanton
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Democrat Troy Jackson held a narrow lead over Republican Senator Susan Collins in a new CNN/SSRS poll of the Maine Senate race published on Wednesday. It’s the fourth consecutive independent poll giving him a lead since he became the Democratic nominee in July.
Maine’s Senate race is expected to be one of the most competitive races of the midterms. The Pine Tree State has generally leaned toward Democrats in recent cycles, backing former Vice President Kamala Harris by 7 points in 2024, but Collins has won in the past because of her personal popularity and bipartisan image.
The new poll highlights the race's competitive nature as Democrats hope to unseat the longtime incumbent in a national environment shaped by President Donald Trump’s declining national approval rating.
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Newsweek reached out to the Collins and Jackson campaigns for comment via email.
Troy Jackson Leads Close Race, CNN Poll Finds
Jackson held a 3-point lead over Collins in the new poll, 48 percent to 45 percent. The narrow lead is within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points, so it’s pointing to a very tight race in the state. The poll surveyed 880 registered voters from August 31 to September 6, 2026.
The majority (71 percent) of Jackson’s supporters described their vote as being “against Collins,” rather than “for Jackson,” but 74 percent of Collins’ supporters said their vote was “for” the incumbent senator, according to the poll.
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Jackson’s favorability rating was underwater by 6 points in the poll, with 42 percent viewing him unfavorably and 36 percent viewing him favorably. Collins was 10 points underwater, with 51 percent viewing her unfavorably and 41 percent viewing her favorably.
It found a significant gap in the Senate and gubernatorial race, where Democrat Hannah Pingree held a 13-point lead over Republican Bobby Charles, 52 percent to 39 percent. It did not ask about independent candidate Rick Bennett.
Collins has outrun other Republicans in Maine in the past.
What Other Polls Show
The CNN poll aligns with other recent surveys suggesting a close race.
An Abacus Data poll released earlier in September found that Jackson led Collins by 9 points, 52 percent to 43 percent among likely voters. But among all registered voters, Collins was up a single point, 46 percent to 45 percent, the poll found. The poll surveyed 500 registered voters and 327 likely voters in Maine from August 26 to 28, 2026. The margin of error among registered voters was plus or minus 4.4 percentage points, but larger among likely voters.
A recent Fox News poll showed Jackson up 2 points, 48 percent to 46 percent among 1,000 registered voters. It was conducted from August 6 to 10, 2026 by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
An earlier University of New Hampshire survey gave Jackson a 3-point lead, 49 percent to 46 percent. It surveyed 1,178 likely voters from July 15 to 20, 2026.
Can Susan Collins Defy Blue Wave?
The Maine Senate race is still considered to be a toss-up by forecasters like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Polling in the Pine Tree State has been off before. It’s viewed as a harder state to poll because of its older, rural population.
The 2020 race between Collins and Democrat Sara Gideon saw a polling error in Collins’ favor, though polling errors are not always duplicated from cycle to cycle.
Collins trailed Gideon in nearly every poll but ultimately outperformed the polls to hold onto the seat, even as former President Joe Biden won the state by 9 points that year.
Democrats note that 2026 is likely to be a stronger national environment. Voters have soured on the Trump administration amid concerns around the economy, cost of living and the war in Iran.
The CNN poll found that 67 percent of Mainers disapprove of Trump, while only 31 percent approve.
The state stands to feel the effects of Trump’s latest round of tariffs on Canada. Voters in the state could also face high home heating prices this winter, as many homes there use oil-based heating systems—and oil prices have surged amid the Iran war.
Still, Republicans view the race as competitive and have hoped to cast Jackson as too progressive for the state.
Democrats have also had a tumultuous election season in the state.
Graham Platner, a progressive political newcomer whose campaign garnered national attention, was hit with sexual abuse allegations just weeks after clinching the nomination. He ultimately withdrew from the race but has denied the allegations.
Jackson, who initially ran for governor but ultimately lost the primary, emerged as the new nominee during a convention in July, easily securing the required delegates to find his place on the ballot.
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What Prediction Markets Show
Prediction markets favor Jackson to flip Maine. As of Wednesday, he had a 68 percent chance on Kalshi and a 72 percent chance on Polymarket of winning against Collins.
Prediction markets let traders buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real-money wagers into probability estimates. Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always predict the future accurately.
Maine Is Must-Win State for Democrats
Democrats’ path to a Senate majority runs through Maine.
Overall, Democrats are hoping to flip the Senate but face a tough race. Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority, so Democrats must flip four seats to win control if they win every race in a seat they currently hold. Vice President JD Vance serves as the tiebreaker in a split Senate.
In order to flip the Senate majority, Democrats have to win every seat they currently hold, flip GOP-held seats in competitive states and win some seats in more traditionally conservative territory.
Democrats are defending seats in Trump-won states Georgia and Michigan. In addition to Maine, they view a GOP-held seat in North Carolina as a top flip opportunity.
No other Senate races are in Harris-won or single-digit Trump states, meaning Democrats must expand the Senate battleground and compete in more conservative areas if they want to win the majority. They are targeting GOP-held seats in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas as potential states to flip. The Cook Political Report classifies those four races as toss-ups.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Gabe Whisnant and Sam Wilson.
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