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President Donald Trump claimed a wholesale victory for his blockade strategy after the Iranian foreign minister confirmed that the Strait of Hormuz is now fully open for commercial vessels, an announcement that sent oil prices tumbling.
Seyed Abbas Araghchi, in a post on X, said the new ceasefire in Lebanon was the immediate trigger for the strait’s reopening.
Tehran had claimed an end to Israeli strikes against its Hezbollah allies in Lebanon was part of the ceasefire agreement with the U.S., something Washington had denied. The continuing Israeli action in Lebanon prompted Iran to accuse the U.S. of breaking the ceasefire agreement, saying it would continue to block and disrupt the shipping that transited the strait.
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That move prompted the U.S. blockade, which in effect turned vessels around, causing Iran to threaten shipping more broadly, including in the Red Sea.
But the news of a ceasefire in Lebanon gave Tehran the space to save face and attempt to end the U.S. blockade by reopening the strait before it begins to bite hard on the Iranian economy, acutely vulnerable to long-running disruption in the vital waterway.
Yet within Araghchi’s statement declaring the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz was a hidden catch: this is time-bound and under Iranian oversight. It sat in stark contrast to Trump's own declaration that Hormuz was now permanently open to the world on an Iranian promise never to close it again.
"In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire, on the coordinated route as already announced by Ports and Maritime Organization of the Islamic Rep. of Iran," Araghchi wrote.
It is an attempt to maintain the strait as Iranian leverage, imperilled by Trump's blockade, which threatens to turn Tehran’s strategic advantage into a major vulnerability as its critical oil revenues dry up and its storage tanks overflow.
Trump, for his part, has said the naval blockade will remain in place until "our transaction with Iran is 100% complete," adding that this should happen "very quickly" as "most of the points are already negotiated."
The question now is whether this temporary resolution on Hormuz can lead to a permanent deal. Trump says such an outcome is near, though the public rhetoric from Tehran continues to be defiant of American demands on nuclear and missile capabilities especially.
The truce in Lebanon also appears real but fragile. U.N. peacekeepers had observed no airstrikes since midnight, even as they accused Israel of airspace violations and shelling, and the Netanyahu government says Israeli troops will remain in a buffer zone in southern Lebanon.
So far, the Lebanon ceasefire has supplied the diplomatic cover for a tactical Iranian retreat. But because Araghchi explicitly tied the reopening to the ceasefire’s duration, Tehran also signaled that the threat can return if the truce collapses.
Trump is already running a victory lap. He said Israel was "prohibited" from striking Lebanon, while repeating his position that it is not covered by the Iran ceasefire anyway. He said the U.S. would take control of nuclear "dust", meaning highly enriched uranium buried under Iran's destroyed facilities. He said the U.S. and Iran would together de-mine the strait.
"Iran has agreed to never close the Strait of Hormuz again. It will no longer be used as a weapon against the World!" Trump claimed on Truth Social, a sharp difference in expectation-setting with Araghchi.
As it stands, the Trump blockade appears to have focused Tehran’s minds. And the Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon makes talks with the U.S. more palatable for Iran, opening the path to the comprehensive deal Trump is seeking.
This could be a decisive moment that finally fulfills Trump’s oft-repeated claim: the war is over.
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