Trump Loses Lead in Texas, Where Democrats Haven't Won Since 1976

President Donald Trump has lost his lead among voters in Texas, a state that the Democratic Party has not won since 1976, a new poll found.

The latest poll from Quinnipiac University shows Trump and Democratic candidate Joe Biden as tied, both receiving 47 percent of voters' support. Texas, once a reliably red state, is turning out to be tighter race for the president, who received more than 50 percent of the vote there in 2016.

Its prize of 38 electoral votes—the second-largest of any state—helped secure Trump's overall win against competitor Hillary Clinton. The vast majority of recent polls have shown Trump with a small lead over Biden, but the Quinnipiac survey conducted October 16 through 19 suggests that has narrowed.

This compares with a September 24 Quinnipiac poll of likely voters in Texas which found that Trump had a 5-point lead over Biden, 50 to 45 percent.

The apparent shift in voters' opinions is causing some to question whether Texas could actually turn blue this year—a feat that has not been accomplished in 44 years, when Jimmy Carter won the state in the 1976 election.

With several larger cities like Dallas, Houston and Austin, becoming more liberal in the years since Trump's first campaign, the odds of Texans voting for the president again are shrinking.

The poll comes amid surging numbers of early voters in the Lone Star State. As of Tuesday, just eight days after early voting began on October 13, more than 5.3 million people had already cast their ballot, according to data from the Texas secretary of state.

While it is too soon to know with certainty which way the state is currently leaning, the latest Quinnipiac poll found that Trump likely won't see the majority of his supporters cast their ballots until Election Day.

Among those who will vote in person on November 3, 62 percent said they support Trump, while 32 percent will go for Biden. But the Democratic candidate received more support among those voting by mail and those voting early at a location—63 and 48 percent, respectively.

The number of ballots cast by Monday surpassed the total votes Trump received in 2016 in the state, which was 4.6 million, according to The New York Times. Texas continues to lead the U.S. in voter turnout ahead of the November 3 election, according to the United States Election Project. Following closely behind are California, with 4.5 million votes, and Florida, with 3.6 million votes.

Early Voting in TX
A poll worker stamps a voters ballot before dropping it into a secure box at a ballot drop off location on October 13 in Austin, Texas. President Donald Trump has lost his lead among voters in Texas, a state that the Democratic Party has not won since 1976, a new poll found. Sergio Flores/Getty