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By Kate Plummer
Senior US News Reporter
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The likelihood Viktor Orbán winning Hungary's upcoming parliamentary election has dropped since U.S. Vice President JD Vance made a speech endorsing him, according to the latest betting odds.
Speaking at a press conference in Hungary's capital, Budapest, on Wednesday, Vance said he would help the incumbent prime minister in his election campaign and praised Orbán ahead of the April 12 poll.
Since then, betting markets show Orbán's stock has fallen marginally, though there is no suggestion that his declining fortunes have been caused by Vance's intervention.
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Newsweek reached out to Orbán' office and representatives for Vance by email to comment on this story outside of normal business hours.
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Why It Matters
Orbán's ruling party Fidesz has been in power for 16 years and has won four elections in a row. But the party is now looking to stave off an upset from the opposition Tisza party, led by Peter Magyar, which is making significant inroads in polls.
If Orbán loses the election, it will impact Hungary's relationship with Washington. He is a key ally of President Donald Trump and backed him in his 2024 election campaign. Trump, for his part, described Orbán as a "true friend, fighter, and WINNER," backing the incumbent for the spring elections earlier this month.
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A different political regime in Hungary may not be as favorable to Trump's administration. It will also highlight the limitations of the Trump administration to influence elections abroad, thus weakening the sense of the U.S.' capabilities as a global power.
What To Know
According to Polymarket, Orbán has odds of 28 percent of winning the upcoming election, down from 35 percent on April 5.
According to betting platform Kalshi, the incumbent prime minister has a 30 percent chance of victory. On April 5, he was said to have a 33.3 percent chance of winning the vote, so his odds have dropped by some three percentage points in five days.
The betting odds follow two early March opinion polls which showed Tisza, a center-right party, in pole position. But, another recent poll from the Nezopont Institute showed Orbán's Fidesz coalition maintaining a 6 percent lead over Tisza.
Vance is not the only U.S. politician who has recently offered support to Hungary's leader. Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited Budapest in February. There, he praised Orbán and old him Trump was committed to his success.
What People Are Saying
Zsuzsanna Szelényi, director of the Democracy Institute Leadership Academy (DILA) at Central European University previously told Newsweek: "The one reason why it is now such a different election than the last four is that Orbán has been in power for 15 years and there is a general fatigue of this government."
Speaking at an Orbán campaign rally, Vance said: "We want you to make a decision about your future with no outside forces pressuring you or telling you what to do. I'm not telling you exactly who to vote for but what I am telling you is that the bureaucrats in Brussels, those people should not be listened to."
President Donald Trump said by phone from Washington at the rally: "I love Hungary, and I love Viktor. I’m telling you he’s a fantastic man. I’m a big fan of Viktor. I’m with him all the way."
What Happens Next
The election takes place on April 12
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