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By Anna Skinner
Associate News Editor
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An official with the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) is warning that a full recovery of California's concerningly low snowpack is "very unlikely" this year, meaning the state's water supply could be threatened later this summer when warmer temperatures and drier weather arrives.
In late February, the Department of Water Resources (DWR) conducted a snow survey that found conditions “in better shape" than a month ago, yet still below average statewide after warm storms caused lower‑elevation melt. Snow is effectively California’s largest natural reservoir, and its seasonal accumulation and melt determine how much water will flow into rivers and reservoirs through spring and summer. In a state where snowpack typically supplies about a third of annual water needs, water managers rely on a deep, cold snowpack to carry the state through long dry periods and buffer drought conditions.
"Based on current forecast projections, it is unlikely that the statewide snowpack will reach 100 percent of average by April 1. To reach an average April 1 condition, California’s snowpack would have to increase by several feet of snow depth by April 1, especially in the Northern Sierra, where the largest reservoirs are located," David Rizzardo, hydrology section manager for DWR's Hydrology and Flood Operations Branch, told Newsweek. "Even if California were able to get more snowstorms in March, having that much snow accumulate during the month is very unlikely."
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Despite the concerning outlook, all of California's major reservoirs remain at or above historical average for this time of year. However, snowmelt during the spring months is necessary to supplement the reservoirs for them to retain good health through the hot, dry summer. Although California has shown an impressive recovery in prior years when snowpack was below normal, a full recovery has not occurred over the past 25 years when levels were this low this late in the season.
"Over the past 25 years, there are no years where the statewide snowpack was at or below the current levels (59% of average to date) and made a recovery to 100% of the April 1 condition," Rizzardo told Newsweek. "There were some years where 15-20% was added during March, but nothing on the order of adding 30% or more during March. There are also several years where we lost snowpack in March, which is our current concern."
Current temperature outlooks make it appear as though the moisture-laden winter storms California needs to replenish its snowpack will be unlikely as well.
The six- to 10-day and the eight- to 14-day temperature outlooks from the National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Prediction Center anticipate a chance of above-average temperatures across California through March 18, with below-average precipitation expected during the same timeframe.
Already, snow that has accumulated in the Sierra Nevada is melting.
"The melt-off of California's snowpack in the middle of winter has been nothing short of incredible in the last 2 weeks," extreme weather chaser Colin McCarthy posted on X recently. "Many areas that saw 4–7 feet of snow two weeks ago have barren ground today."
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