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By Sam Stevenson
Associate News Editor
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James Talarico ended his Texas Senate campaign before supporters at a music venue in Austin on Monday, while Ken Paxton addressed a restaurant 220 miles away in Allen.
Two final polls gave the Democrat leads of 5.9 and 7 percentage points before voting began Tuesday, although neither result makes victory certain.
Texans will decide whether Republicans preserve a seat central to their Senate majority or Democrats achieve a statewide breakthrough that has eluded them for decades.
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Newsweek emailed the Paxton and Talarico campaigns for comment on Tuesday morning.
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Why It Matters
Midterm elections usually create difficult conditions for the president’s party because voters can use them to register dissatisfaction without removing the president. That underlying pressure has helped turn a normally Republican Texas Senate contest into a competitive fight with national consequences.
Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate advantage, counting the two independents who caucus with Democrats on the Democratic side. Because the vice president can resolve a 50-50 tie, Democrats need a net gain of four seats to control the chamber.
Key Points
- Paxton finished where his political career began, returning to Allen after a statewide tour framed around the Texas Revolution.
- Talarico chose Stubb’s BBQ, an Austin gig space, for a closing event featuring local performers.
- Collin County is crucial to Paxton’s path, while Talarico needs a commanding result in Travis County and strength in nearby suburbs.
- The official ballot also includes Libertarian Ted Brown and several write-in candidates.
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Talarico’s Austin Crowd
Talarico’s supporters packed into Stubb’s BBQ for a finale that mixed the atmosphere of a concert with the tension of a campaign confronting Texas’ long Democratic losing streak.
Around 1,800 people attended, according to a statement from Talarico’s campaign shared with The Texas Tribune and Fox News. Meanwhile, The Dallas Morning News reported in a post on X that “hundreds” had been there.
On the eve of Election Day, Democrat James Talarico wrapped up his U.S. Senate campaign with a final stop at Stubb's in Austin. Follow all the latest news and updates during Election Day at https://t.co/nomHuKQoII. https://t.co/4a8IrK9EjH
— Dallas Morning News (@dallasnews) November 3, 2026
Photographs and video showed spectators gathered across the venue’s floor and upper level, with more people waiting outside earlier in the day.
James Talarico gives his closing arguments at his last rally on Election Day eve at Stubb’s in Austin, TX. #TXSEN https://t.co/vKGGITvXE1
— Olivia Palombo (@oliviampalombo) November 3, 2026
“There’s that moment in every game, the last play of the last drive, when you have to leave it all on the field,” Talarico told the audience, his voice hoarse after weeks of travel. “Austin, we are in that moment.”
Supporters held campaign placards reading “Take Back Texas” and “Talarico for Texas,” while others raised phones to photograph or record the rally.
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The 37-year-old state representative and former public school teacher has presented himself as an economic populist, campaigning on universal child care, limits on credit-card interest rates and restrictions on congressional stock trading.
For Democrats in attendance, the celebration carried an uncomfortable memory: promising Texas campaigns have repeatedly ended in defeat.
One supporter, 26-year-old Nate Hill, told The Texas Tribune he had twice voted for President Donald Trump but cast his first ballot for a Democrat this year.
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Paxton Returns To Allen
Paxton closed at Matt’s Rancho Martinez, the Tex-Mex restaurant where he had celebrated Trump’s endorsement during the Republican primary.
No official attendance estimate has yet been released by the campaign.
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Images showed people standing close together near the stage, while The Texas Tribune described the room as mostly full; those details do not establish a crowd count.
Paxton’s final rally crowd in Allen was reported by local news account TX3DNews to be smaller than at his previous appearance at the restaurant.
Photographs shared by the outlet showed the scene inside and outside Matt’s Rancho Martinez at about 5:20 p.m., 10 minutes before doors were scheduled to open. The images therefore did not establish the event’s eventual attendance.
Images released by Getty Images did show attendees lining up around the side of the Allen restaurant ahead of the event.
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Former NBA player Enes Kanter Freedom also attended Paxton’s final campaign event.
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Inside Matt’s Rancho Martinez, supporters placed their hands over their hearts and recited the Pledge of Allegiance before Paxton delivered his final campaign pitch.
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The 63-year-old Texas attorney general asked supporters who had already voted to contact Republicans who had not. His message was stark: “Texas has never been this close to slipping away.”
Paxton defeated four-term Senator John Cornyn for the Republican nomination and has promised to advance Trump’s agenda through tighter immigration enforcement, lower taxes and reduced federal regulation.
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What The Final Polls Show
AtlasIntel placed Talarico at 51.3 percent and Paxton at 45.4 percent among 1,678 respondents surveyed from October 28 to November 1. Its online Random Digital Recruitment poll reported a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
A New York Times/Siena College survey produced the largest final advantage, putting the Democrat on 50 percent against the Republican’s 43 percent. That poll questioned 1,215 likely Texas voters from October 27 to November 1 and carried a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.3 points.
Data for Progress recorded a narrower 49 percent to 45 percent race among 712 likely voters interviewed from October 23 to 26. Its margin of sampling error was plus or minus 4 points.
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When Texas Polls Close
Polling places are open from 7 a.m. until 7 p.m. local time, according to the Texas Secretary of State. Most of Texas uses Central Time, while El Paso and Hudspeth counties observe Mountain Time, meaning the last polling places close at 9 p.m. Eastern.
Anyone waiting in line at closing time may still vote. Official returns will appear after polling ends, with the state results page listing the Senate contest but showing no locations reporting before the count begins.
What Happens Next
Watch the initial margins in Travis and Collin counties rather than treating the first statewide number as decisive.
Their contrasting results should provide an early indication of whether Austin’s crowded finale marked a political realignment or another near miss for Texas Democrats.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.
Contact Newsweek editor on this story: Edward Pearcey.
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