Report: VW to Overtake Tesla in EV Sales by 2024

Volkswagen Chairman and CEO Herbert Diess is confident that the German automaker can overtake Tesla in the electric vehicle (EV) market over the next few years.

On Twitter today, Diess amplified a report (with a Twitter meme featuring Aquaman actor Jason Momoa with a VW logo on his chest creeping up behind Superman actor Henry Cavill sporting a Tesla logo) from Bloomberg Intelligence. The report predicts the legacy manufacturer will overtake the California-based startup in EV sales by 2024.

VW already sells more EVs than Tesla in Europe, and the report's analysts say that it will continue to dominate that market despite Tesla's new factory in Germany. The report also notes that for this forecast to come true, VW will need to boost its EV market share in China, where it currently sits at 3.5 percent.

By 2025, Bloomberg expects both automakers to reach a volume of nearly 2.5 million EV units. Chinese manufacturer BYD is forecasted in third with about 1.5 million units, while Ford, General Motors and Stellantis are expected to produce about 1 million electrified units.

Bloomberg thinks that more than a dozen EVs that VW plans to come to market with will give it an edge over the startup.

With the billions that VW is spending on strengthening its supply chain, analysts are confident that further reducing the cost of an EV battery will contribute to the company's race to the top. Those plans include six new battery cell plants in Europe.

Additionally, over the next year or so, analyst consensus projects a likely slowdown in deliveries of Tesla vehicles, namely the Model 3 and Model Y as legacy automakers reach higher-volume production on their EV models.

New capacity from factories in Texas and Germany led many market analysts to say that Tesla would double sales in 2023, though Bloomberg analysts say that that hinges on the release of the Cybertruck, which they call "questionable."

VW on the other hand, is poised to release 16 new EV models in the coming years across its marques, including the Audi A6 e-tron, the Audi Q6, the ID.Buzz, and the Porsche Macan EV.

2024 Volkswagen ID. Buzz Cargo
The ID.Buzz is slated to go on sale for the 2024 model year. Volkswagen of America

The company has stated that it wants 25 percent of its sales to be from battery-electric vehicles by 2025.

Bloomberg also noted that the introduction of more EVs from premium brands will further erode Tesla's dominance in the marketplace, naming the 2022 Porsche Taycan and Audi GT as specific examples of VW's favorable position.

Currently, Volkswagen sells the 2022 VW ID.4 in the U.S., a crossover EV with an EPA-estimated range of 280 miles on a single charge. While those vehicles have been built in Europe so far, the company is expected to commence series production at its Chattanooga, Tennessee manufacturing facility.

It's also committed to reviving the Scout brand for a series of electric SUVs and pickup trucks by 2026.

From several manufacturing bases in the U.S., including Texas, California and Nevada plants, Tesla produces the Model 3 and Model S sedans, as well as the Model Y and Model X SUVs. CEO Elon Musk has said that the Cybertruck, a vehicle that has experienced significant delays, will enter production in 2023.