Republicans' Chances of Beating Mark Kelly With 4 Months to Election: Polls

With just four months until Election Day, Republicans aim to win back the Senate seat Democrat Mark Kelly won in the 2020 election, but recent polls suggest he is favored to secure his first full term.

Kelly, a retired NASA astronaut, beat out former GOP Senator Martha McSally in the 2020 special election. McSally had been appointed to serve out the remainder of the late Senator John McCain's term but failed to convince Arizona's voters that she should finish out the remainder of the six years.

Now, Kelly is up for reelection in the 2022 midterm race on November 8. It's still unclear which Republican contender will face off against the incumbent, but venture capitalist Blake Masters, who has been endorsed by former President Donald Trump, appears to be the front-runner. In addition to Masters, the top GOP candidates are Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich and businessman Jim Lamon.

Mark Kelly and Gabby Giffords
Arizona's GOP hopes to oust Democratic Senator Mark Kelly in November 8's midterm election. Above, Kelly and his wife, former Representative Gabrielle Giffords, talk to the crowd during the Tucson premiere screening of "Gabby Giffords Won't Back Down" on July 5. Chris Coduto/Getty Images for Briarcliff Entertainment

The most recent polling data for the race shows Kelly leading his GOP rivals. A survey conducted by Change Research for the Democratic organization Future Majority showed the incumbent 9 points ahead of Masters and 6 points ahead of Lamon. Up against Masters, Kelly won with 48 percent to his Trump-backed opponent's 39 percent. In a head-to-head race with Lamon, the former astronaut garnered 47 percent support, while the Republican had 41 percent.

The poll surveyed 705 registered Arizona voters and was conducted June 24 to 27.

A Blueprint Polling survey from mid-May showed Kelly with double-digit leads over Masters, Lamon and Brnovich. Pitted against Masters, the senator led by 16.3 points, or 48.6 percent to 32.3 percent. Facing Lamon, Kelly was ahead by 13.3 percent, or 47.7 percent to 34.4 percent. And up against Brnovich, the incumbent led by 17.1 percent, or 49.7 percent to 32.6 percent.

The poll was conducted among 608 Arizona voters from May 12 to 16, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.97 percent.

Arizona has been trending Democratic in recent national elections. In 2020, President Joe Biden became the first Democratic presidential candidate to win the state since 1996. Before 1996, Arizona had gone for GOP presidential contenders in every election going back to 1952.

Both of Arizona's senators are now Democrats, the other being Senator Kyrsten Sinema. Before her 2018 win, her seat had been held by Republicans going back to 1995. Kelly's seat had been GOP-controlled since 1969.