The Bulletin

December 20, 2023

World in Brief

Welcome to the Bulletin,

Israel-Hamas Conflict: Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh arrived in Cairo for fresh talks with Egyptian officials about a ceasefire in Gaza. Israel said it is open to negotiations regarding a pause in fighting in exchange for more hostages. Meanwhile, the U.N. Security Council is expected to vote today on a resolution calling for a ceasefire.
Calls to be Investigated: The Center for Renewing America, a conservative think-tank, said it has filed an ethics complaint against Supreme Court Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, accusing her of failing to disclose information about her husband's income.
Jeffrey Epstein Documents: A judge ordered the unsealing of documents containing the identities of more than 150 people related to late financier Jeffrey Epstein as soon as New Year's Day, saying that many names were already public.
Rebate on Car Payment: Michigan residents could soon get up to $2,500 for purchasing a car under the "MI Vehicle Rebate," the new program aims to increase sales of electric, hybrid, and traditional combustion vehicles.
War In Ukraine: Ethan Hertweck, a U.S. volunteer fighting against Russian forces in Ukraine, has been killed "in a ferocious battle" in Avdiivka in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region, a fellow soldier said.
Unconventional: Here's an exclusive look at the legendary B-2 spirit stealth bomber as Newsweek's Naveed Jamali gets a rare opportunity to fly in celebration of its 30-year anniversary and discover how the Air Force maintains a state of constant readiness.
Kia's Electric Revolution: In the ever-evolving transportation landscape, electric cars have emerged as trailblazers, poised to revolutionize how we travel now and in the coming decades.

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Trump Colorado Decision Could Have 'Snowball Effect' on Other States

The Colorado Supreme Court banned Donald Trump from the state's ballot for the 2024 election over his role in the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol attack. The 4-3 ruling makes Trump the first candidate deemed ineligible for the White House under the rarely used Civil War-era clause that bars any individual who has "engaged in insurrection" from holding office. The ruling applies to Colorado's GOP primary ballot, but it could have reverberations for the 2024 election.

Why it matters: The ruling has enraged Trump's supporters. The Colorado GOP Party said it will cancel the primary and hold a caucus instead if the court ruling disqualifying Trump remains in place. Trump's 2024 rival and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy pledged to remove himself from the primary ballot until Trump's eligibility is restored. Trump's campaign spokesperson Steven Cheung pledged to appeal to the conservative-leaning Supreme Court. Dissenting Justice Carlos Samour warned of "chaos." The decision reversed a lower court ruling that Trump engaged in insurrection but could not be barred because it was unclear the clause intended to cover the presidency.

TL/DR: “President Trump did not merely incite the insurrection,” Colorado Supreme Court majority justices wrote. “He continued to support it [siege on the Capitol] by repeatedly demanding that Vice President Pence refuse to perform his constitutional duty and by calling Senators to persuade them to stop the counting” of votes.

What happens now? The Colorado ruling will be placed on hold until Jan. 4, pending the results of Trump's appeal to the Supreme Court—which has never ruled on Section 3. State officials asked for the matter to be settled by Jan. 5, a deadline for them to print the ballots. The GOP primary will take place on March 5. While it remains to be seen if Trump is reinstated, the GOP frontrunner is unlikely to make huge gains in the increasingly Democratic state. That won’t necessarily stop him from returning to the White House. The ruling serves as a test case for other efforts to disqualify Trump from the state ballot under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. If other states follow Colorado, it could weaken Trump's chances of amassing the 270 Electoral College votes required to win. Trump is facing similar battles in other states, including New Hampshire.

Deeper reading Donald Trump Colorado Decision Could Have 'Snowball Effect' on Other States

Mike Johnson's Speakership Is Unraveling

House Speaker Mike Johnson's honeymoon period seems to have ended as hardline and MAGA Republicans criticized him over the passing of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). The $886 billion spending bill includes a 5.2% pay raise for troops but omits culture war issues that GOP factions favored, like the abortion travel policy and cuts to transgender troop medical care. The bill includes a temporary extension of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, which House Republicans wanted via stand-alone legislation over "spying" concerns.

Why it matters: The House Freedom Caucus called Johnson's handling of NDAA negotiations an "utter disaster," and compared it to former Speaker John Boehner, who left the role in 2015 after falling out with conservative lawmakers on several issues. Some fear that Johnson could soon follow in the footsteps of former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who was ousted in October. Professor Grant Reeher told Newsweek that the GOP's razor-thin House majority and the single motion to vacate rule still in place means Johnson's position is "constantly tenuous."

TL/DR: "It's a good sign that Johnson has made some decisions that go against their grain, so he doesn't appear to be terribly afraid of them [House Republicans]," political science professor Grant Reeher told Newsweek.

What happens now? The bill is set to be signed by President Joe Biden. Currently, there does not appear a desire from House Republicans to repeat the disarray that lawmakers saw to replace McCarthy. Despite being in the role for only two months, Reeher said that Johnson's position as House speaker could rest entirely on the 2024 elections. If Republicans can increase their majority, Reeher says it could “go a long way to bolstering Johnson's position,” and if they lose, “they will elect a new minority leader.”

Deeper reading Mike Johnson's Speakership Is Unraveling

Hamas, Gen Z and the 'River to the Sea'

The Israel-Hamas war has divided many in the U.S. but none more than young Americans, who are split 50/50 over which side to support. A recent Harvard CAPS/Harris poll showed that while 81% of Americans back Israel and 19% support Hamas, those aged 18 to 24 are split over who they support. More than 70% of young people said Oct. 7 was a terrorist attack, with 66% believing it was genocidal. But 60% also thought the attack could be justified by the grievances of Palestinians, and believe Israel is committing genocide in Gaza.

Why it matters: Young Americans have been at the forefront of the "Free Palestine" movement since Hamas' attack, mobilizing on college campuses and social media and spurring fierce debates. One particularly polarizing aspect has been the slogan, "From the river to the sea, Palestine will be free." Some have argued that it advocates for the eradication of Israel while others have defended it as a nonviolent call for Palestinian liberation and justice.

TL/DR: “Millennials and Gen Z are both far less comfortable about embracing the actions of the Israeli state than their parents,” associate politics professor Mark Shanahan told Newsweek “The total war in Gaza has alienated many of America's younger adults.”

What happens now? Young Americans are the only age group where the majority does not want a two-state solution—which is heavily favored by older Americans. More than half of 18- to 24-year-olds want Israel to be ended and given to Hamas and the Palestinians, while 32% favor two states. But the poll also showed there were strong anti-Hamas and pro-Israel sentiments among Gen Z, suggesting the conflict is much more complicated than simply siding with Israel or Palestinians. Seven-in-10 young adults believe Israel is trying to avoid civilian casualties, while 58% said the same about Hamas.

Deeper reading Hamas, Gen Z and the 'River to the Sea'

Ukraine's FPV Drones 'More Efficient' Than Artillery

First-person view (FPV) drones are becoming more useful to Ukraine's fighters than artillery, according to Kyiv's drone tsar, as Kyiv ploughs on with efforts to put more of the machines in the air. The FPV uncrewed vehicles have become "a game-changer" on the battlefield, taking out masses of Russian hardware, Kyiv's Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov told Newsweek. U.K.-based drone expert Steve Wright agreed, saying the drones are a "continuation of a trend" of "moving to more and more tight targeting of explosives."

Why it Matters: FPV drones became almost emblematic of Ukraine's efforts with unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). And Ukraine is stocking up. Kyiv's United24 platform recently raised about $6.3 million to buy 10,000 FPV drones. The drones, bought abroad and fitted with ammunition inside Ukraine, have a range of up to 10 kilometers (6.2 miles), Fedorov said. Newsweek understands that the drones will be used in Ukraine, rather than for operations involving Crimea.

TL/DR: FPV drones "work sometimes even more efficiently than artillery," Kyiv's Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov told Newsweek. They "are indeed a tech revolution, even though the tech itself is quite easy."

What happens now? Despite their effectiveness, Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun, a spokesperson for Ukraine's Tavria grouping of forces that covers the town of Avdiivka, said that "not all combat tasks can be performed” with FPV drones. Ukraine needed more "effective countermeasures against enemy FPV drones and other unmanned aerial vehicles," he added. Another round of funding will help buy 3,000 FPV drones kitted out with thermal cameras, and 2,000 more with daytime cameras, with a range of up to 22 kilometers (about 13 miles). An initial batch of 3,000 drones will arrive in Ukraine after the new year, with a second batch following in February 2024, United24 said.

Deeper reading Ukraine's Cheap FPV Drones 'More Efficient' Than Prized Artillery

America's Police Can't Solve Murders Anymore

The police success rate in solving U.S. murder cases has declined sharply in the past 50 years, an analysis by the independent Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ) showed. The homicide "clearance," or solve rate, was nearly 84% in 1964 and dropped to 50% in 2022. The decline may be the result of better legal protections for the accused, a weakening police-public relationship, more murders committed by strangers, and slower police response rates.

Why it Matters: Black men were eight times more likely than white males to be murdered in 2020-2021, while black women were four times more likely to be murdered than white females. Police understanding of the relationships between victims and offenders has steadily declined. The homicide rate began trending upward in 2015 after a long-running decline. After peaking in 2021, it remained 24% higher in a sample of 30 cities in the first half of 2023 than before the pandemic. Teenagers aged 15 and 19 were three times more likely to die by homicide in 2020-2021 than in 1960.

TL/DR: "A lower clearance rate does not automatically equate to less police effectiveness, but when factors like low trust result in less cooperation, that is a major problem for our justice system," Ernesto Lopez, co-author of the report, told Newsweek.

What happens now? If the trend continues, less than half of murders will be solved in 2023 and in subsequent years. A targeted law enforcement approach would likely help address the issue; new violence-reduction strategies and a tighter focus on high-crime areas have been effective. Other theories contributing to increased violence include an “increase in gun sales, a decline in the perceived legitimacy of police and our justice system, and changes in drug markets,” the report said, adding more data is needed to understand the dynamics.

Deeper reading America's Police Can't Solve Murders Anymore

Home Building Surges in Good Sign for Housing Market

The number of new residential construction soared in November to its strongest jump since May, a sign of an improving housing market that has struggled amid elevated mortgage rates, high prices, and low supply. Housing starts skyrocketed by nearly 15% in November from October to about 1.6 million, Census Bureau and the Housing Department data showed. From a year ago, building starts rose by more than 9% to 1.4 million, while single-family housing starts shot up by 18% to 1.1 million.

Why it matters: High mortgage rates—that hit a two-decade high of 8% in October—have locked in sellers who prefer to stay put on their cheaper rates. "Investors have clearly rewarded homebuilders as low inventory of existing homes on the market has created an opportunity for new construction," LPL Financial's chief economist Jeffrey Roach told Newsweek. The housing market saw a surge in activity, a Redfin report showed, marked by a steep increase in pending home sales and housing prices for November as mortgage rates drop.

TL/DR: "Home price appreciation can only moderate from drastically improved supply... Another 30 [percent] rise in home construction can easily be absorbed in the marketplace" amid declining mortgage rates, NAR’s chief economist Lawrence Yun told Newsweek.

What happens now? Economists expected the Federal Reserve to begin rate cuts in 2024 as inflation improves, which could boost the housing market. Multi-family new home construction was more vulnerable to a decline as their supply was "more plentiful and lending standards have tightened more," Oxford Economics' Nancy Vanden Houten said. Goldman Sachs expects home prices to grow modestly next year, predicting prices to grow by 0.6% in 2024, 3.8% in 2025, and 4.9% in 2026.

Deeper reading Housing Market Gets Positive Sign

How AI Is Being Used To Discover New Drugs

The explosion in the sophistication and adoption of artificial intelligence has already seen software that can generate text and images based on simple cues, as well as edit videos and find patterns in large datasets.

With experts arguing that the potential of the emerging technology is limitless, several companies are already employing it to seek out new pharmaceuticals that traditional methods have yet to find.

One company based in Fremont, California, wants to go further. It contends to use AI and cutting-edge science at nearly every stage of development, using digital modelling to expedite a usually laborious and expensive process.

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