Senator Jon Ossoff leads general election matchups against Republican Representatives Mike Collins, Buddy Carter, and GOP candidate Derek Dooley in a new Emerson College Polling/Nexstar survey of Georgia’s 2026 U.S. Senate race.
Why It Matters
The Peach State has become one of the country’s most closely watched battlegrounds, with key statewide races since 2020 decided by narrow margins. Republicans view Ossoff’s seat as a pickup opportunity. The 2026 Senate map favors Republicans, but Democrats are hoping to claw back several lost seats and flip the chamber’s power.
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Ossoff is also the first Georgia Democrat in decades to hold a full Senate term, making his reelection a test of whether the state’s recent Democratic gains are durable or temporary.
Historically, the party in the White House loses seats in the midterms. Democrats believe the state of the economy, concerns about the administration's hardline approach to immigration, and the Iran war may alienate some of the voters who backed Trump in 2024.
What To Know
An Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media poll of 1,000 likely voters conducted between February 28 and March 2 found that Ossoff leads in three hypothetical matchups in the general election.
The poll identifies the closest race as between Ossoff and Carter, with the incumbent securing 47 percent to Carter’s 44 percent. In that scenario, 9 percent of respondents are undecided.
Against Collins, Ossoff leads 48 percent to 43 percent, also with 9 percent undecided. In a matchup against Dooley, Ossoff garners 49 percent of the vote to his 41 percent, with 10 percent undecided. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
A subpoll of 453 likely Republican primary voters found Collins favored, with 30 percent, compared to Carter’s 16 percent and Dooley’s 10 percent. However, 40 percent were undecided. That poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.
There haven't been many polls in the race yet, with a previous September Quantus Insights survey showing Ossoff leading Carter by three points, 40 to 37 percent, and Dooley by 7 points, 42 to 35 percent. However, he was tied against Collins, each receiving 38 percent support in that poll.
It surveyed 624 registered voters from September 9-12 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.
What People Are Saying
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said: “Senator Jon Ossoff enters the 2026 election cycle just under 50% support, anchored by a strong base among independent voters, leading potential Republican opponents by an average of 16 points, along with voters under 50, leading by an average of 12 points, and women, leading by an average of 8 points.”
Representative Mike Collins said in an X post on March 4: “A voting record isn’t a liability if it's the right record. In my short time in Congress, I’ve fought and won to cut spending, eliminate burdensome regulations, and leave the next generation with a safer and more prosperous America. The Senate needs a workhorse who will get things done for Georgia, and I’ll deliver.”
Representative Buddy Carter said in a March 3 X post: “We covered everything from the issues that matter most to Georgians to President Trump’s vision for a stronger, safer, and more prosperous America. Georgians are fired up and ready to get rid of Jon Ossoff. Excited to keep this momentum going as we continue talking to voters across the state!”
Candidate Derek Dooley said in a March 4 X post: "All Georgians want the same thing – a safe community and country, a quality education or the skills needed to have a good job, and the ability to afford a home and raise a family. That’s what the American Dream is all about, and it’s what I’ll be fighting for in the United States Senate when we defeat Jon Ossoff."
Senator Jon Ossoff said in a February 19 X post: "The White House sent Trump to Georgia for damage control on the economy and health care … instead he focused yet again on 2020 election denial. None of this bodes well for the GOP!"
What Happens Next
The Georgia Senate primaries are set to be held on May 19, 2026. If no candidate wins an outright majority in those primaries, the race would go to run-offs on June 16, 2026. The general election is set for November 3, 2026.