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The Bulletin

February 16, 2023

World in Brief

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Fight Over Debt Ceiling Could Lead to a Summer Default

The U.S. government could default as soon as July if legislators do not raise the debt ceiling, Congressional Budget Office (CBO) Director Phillip Swagel has warned. A default would mean the U.S. can't pay its debts, impacting funds allocated for programs like Social Security, Medicare, and military salaries, according to the Treasury Department.

The CBO expects the gross federal debt to grow by $19.6 trillion by the end of 2033.

While Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said defaulting could trigger a "global financial crisis," several Republicans don't want to raise the debt ceiling unless the Biden Administration backs significant spending cuts. Though the CBO flags Medicare and Social Security as key spending hurdles, Biden and most Republicans want to avoid cuts for those programs, which have widespread popularity among likely 2024 voters. The U.S. hit its $31.4 trillion debt ceiling last month, prompting the enactment of emergency measures.

TL/DR: The Congressional Budget Office warns the U.S. government could run out of money by July if an agreement is not reached soon to raise or suspend the debt ceiling.

What happens now? President Joe Biden says a recent GOP budget proposal would add $3 trillion to the deficit in 10 years, while his anticipated proposal would cut the deficit by $2 trillion. Congress will need to pass a new budget before the emergency measures currently in place expire to prevent the U.S. from defaulting.

Deeper reading The Debt Ceiling: How Bad Might Things Get, and Will Congress Raise It?

Trump Rages as FBI Investigations Close In

Donald Trump has hit out at special counsel Jack Smith, who has already produced some bad news for Donald Trump since taking over two Justice Department's probes. Smith has delivered a subpoena to former chief of staff Mark Meadows over the Capitol attack — one of Trump's inner circle members said to be the most likely to "flip" on him and aid a potential DOJ prosecution. The development comes days after former Vice President Mike Pence was subpoenaed.

The speed at which the probes are moving, along with Georgia's investigation, has turned up the heat on Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg to move on a seemingly dormant case. Bragg is investigating hush money payments Trump allegedly made to former adult film star Stormy Daniels. However, former federal prosecutor Michael McAuliffe told Newsweek that Bragg's success in the Trump Organization tax fraud case is providing him the momentum to reactivate the Daniels investigation.

TL/DR: "Radical Left (Trump hating!) Special 'Prosecutor' Jack Smith is leaking to the Fake News Media like a sieve," Donald Trump said as Smith ramps up criminal investigations.

What happens now? Whether Meadows will testify under oath remains to be seen, as he has claimed executive privilege in other legal investigations. Even if Bragg comes up with more evidence to hand Trump an indictment, it will still be hard to do so. Former federal prosecutor Neama Rahmani said Bragg is not only up against the clock to overcome any statute of limitations problems, but it may also be "too little" if Fulton County, Georgia, District Attorney Fani Willis is pursuing a conspiracy indictment against Trump.

Deeper reading Donald Trump Rages at Jack Smith as FBI Investigations Close In

Russia Says Ties with West Reach 'Point of No Return’

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has blamed the U.S. and its Western allies for pushing ties with Moscow to the "point of no return" by supporting Ukrainian war efforts. Lavrov told lawmakers that Western pressure had left Moscow "no way out" of invading Ukraine. His list of grievances included the expansion of NATO and Western support for the 2014 Maidan Revolution—when a pro-Moscow government in Ukraine was unseated.

Lavrov's comments echoed those of Russian envoy to the U.N. Dmitry Polyanskiy, who told Newsweek that the U.S. and NATO members are "pouring oil onto the fire" by supplying military aid to Ukraine. Washington said it would continue to provide full support to Ukraine. However, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted that U.S. officials have "privately signaled to Ukraine" that the aid is "finite." Polls show that the support for Ukraine aid is declining among the American public. Also read our story on Ukraine's worsening displacement crisis.  

TL/DR: The "policy by Washington and the European satellites has reached the point of no return," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told lawmakers.

What happens now? During an address to the Russian Federal Assembly on Tuesday, ISW said Putin is "unlikely to announce measures for further escalation of the war in Ukraine,” new mobilization, or “any other significant policy.” Local media reports said that the military is pushing students to join the war. Amid calls for peace, the U.N. general assembly is expected to vote next Thursday—the eve of the first anniversary of the war—on a resolution for long-lasting peace in Ukraine.

Deeper reading Russia-West Ties Reach 'Point of No Return' Amid Ukraine War: Lavrov

The Fight to Protect Access to Abortion in Montana

Montana lawmakers are considering new legislation that would protect abortion access in the state on the grounds of religious freedom. The bill, HB 471, would revise current state law to allow a religious exemption prohibiting abortion during the first and second trimesters of pregnancy. It also proposes an "out" for healthcare workers who do not want to provide abortions if doing so violates their religious beliefs.

"My bill seeks to say what's good for the goose is good for the gander," Democratic state Representative Ed Stafman, who introduced the bill last week, told Newsweek. "So, if we're going to protect the religious rights of folks to not participate, we ought to also protect religious rights of pregnant women." The move comes amid a wave of legislation proposed in various states, both for anti-abortion and abortion rights, following the U.S. Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade last summer.

TL/DR: Montana lawmakers are considering a new bill that would protect access to abortion in the state on the grounds of religious freedom.

What happens now? The state’s House Judiciary Committee is scheduled to hold a hearing on the bill Friday. If the bill passes the committee, it will then need approval from the full chamber and, ultimately, the signature of Governor Greg Gianforte– who is a Republican. “It feels like we're in a bit of a critical time in terms of access, as we're hitting the first legislative session after the Dobbs decision," Minority House Caucus Chair Alice Buckley told Newsweek, adding that a "tidal wave" of anti-choice bills are still held up in court.

Deeper reading Abortion Is a Religious Belief, Legislator Argues

ISIS Makes Afghanistan Mines Hard to Reach for China

Amid a U.S.-China natural resources race, a growing anti-China campaign by the Islamic State militant group (ISIS) may prove a spoiler for Beijing's interests in Afghanistan's mineral wealth. ISIS has targeted the Taliban's relationship with China and amplified allegations that Beijing is conducting atrocities against Xinjiang's Uyghurs—a messaging largely lifted from Western media, human rights groups, et cetera. ISIS refers to Afghanistan as part of its "Khorasan Province," with its branch referred to as ISIS-K or ISKP.

The Afghanistan fallout allowed China to increase investment in the Islamic Emirate, whose full mineral wealth is unknown but is potentially worth trillions. ISIS has warned China "to stop the genocide," threatening suicide attacks "that will be beyond your ability to control." Mantraya founder Shanthie Mariet D'Souza told Newsweek that while China is not the only target, it is a "prominent" one. China is often referred to as "an imperial power that is out to exploit the country." To read similar stories, subscribe to Newsweek's The Frontlines newsletter.

TL/DR: "China appears to have weighed in a little too heavily [on] the Taliban's ability to control the entire country and subjugate all forms of opposition," Mantraya founder Shanthie Mariet D'Souza told Newsweek.

What happens now? China's economic ambitions in Afghanistan face some obstacles, such as high extraction costs and security concerns, among others. Geoscientist Scott L. Montgomery told Newsweek that modern mining operations could be hampered because “nearly all the areas of interest lack roads, water, and electricity.” Additionally, "Chinese companies are also sensitive to security issues… If the Taliban cannot guarantee security," Montgomery said that companies could either be reluctant to sign a deal or "set contract conditions more strongly in its favor."

Deeper reading Amid U.S.-China Resource Race, ISIS Makes Afghan Mines Hard to Reach for Xi

15 Million Americans Could Soon Lose Medicaid Coverage

About 15 million Americans could soon lose Medicaid and Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP) coverage, and many are likely unaware this will happen. The U.S. hit a historic low rate of uninsured people last year, partly due to a pandemic-era continuous coverage policy set to end on March 31. Once it expires, states must confirm that Medicaid's and CHIP's more than 91 million enrollees still qualify. Loss of coverage could be especially common for residents of the 11 states that haven't recently approved Medicaid expansion.

Paul Shafer and Megan Cole with Boston University's Medicaid Policy Lab tell Newsweek about 45% of those likely to lose coverage will "fall through the cracks" despite still qualifying due to "lack of awareness" and the steps involved with demonstrating eligibility. The process could add to disparities in health care by disproportionately affecting Black, Latinx, Asian American, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander groups, Shafer says. Federal officials say children and young adults will also be disproportionately impacted. States mostly impacted by the change will be Indiana, Wyoming, North Dakota, Missouri and Georgia.

TL/DR: Millions of Americans are expected to lose Medicaid coverage in April as a pandemic-era policy comes to an end, and experts say the coverage loss could come as a surprise to many.

What happens now? A new report published by the Georgetown Center for Children and Families, nearly three-quarters of the children projected to be dropped will remain eligible for Medicaid. Still, they will likely lose coverage because of administrative issues, such as their parents not submitting the necessary paperwork or procedural errors. Efforts to alert the public about this policy change “vary widely by state and are often under-resourced,” Cole says. Boosting communication and other outreach efforts in the weeks that remain could help alert people at risk of losing coverage. Even with existing efforts, “I think there remains a lot of confusion around the unwinding,” Cole says.

Deeper reading How Much Will You Save on Medicare in 2023?

FEATURED CONTENT

'I Survived Genocide, But My Family Was Torn Apart'

Growing up in Kigali, Rwanda, we were the only Tutsi family on the street. I was the youngest of six children and we had a pretty decent life. My mom owned her own business and my dad worked for the customs office. We played with local neighborhood kids, but there was always this sense of othering towards our family.

I was born in the early 1990s, at the beginning of the Rwandan Civil War that cumulated in the genocide of the Tutsi people by the Hutu ethnic majority in 1994, so there was always an undercurrent of tension throughout our lives. One of my earliest memories, when I was around 3 years old, was my nursery teacher saying: "Tutsis on one side, Hutus on the corner."

From an early age, my mother taught us to lie if we were asked if we were Hutu or Tutsi*.* I knew we were different, but I don't think I fully understood what was going on at the time. I remember my dad coming home battered and bruised and knowing it was because he was Tutsi.

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